Short Refinance Program Initiated

In an article on the CDPE Blog this week… A Short Refinance Program has been Initiated!

What this means to you is that – In an effort to help homeowners who owe more on their homes than they’re currently worth, the government will initiate its “short refinance” program on Tuesday, September 7, 2010.

According to an August 6 Mortgagee Letter released by HUD (click here to download the entire letter), the program will allow “borrowers who are current on their mortgage to qualify for an FHA refinance loan provided that the lender or investor writes off the unpaid principal balance of the original first lien mortgage by at least 10 percent.”

While lender consent is required and program participation voluntary, the FHA has stated the program could modify between 500,000 and 1.5 million upside-down mortgages.

Following are a few of the eligibility requirements detailed in the Mortgagee Letter:

Homeowner must have negative equity, be current on the existing mortgage, and have a FICO score greater than or equal to 500
It must be for the homeowner’s primary residence
Existing loan can’t be FHA-insured
First lien holder must write off at least 10 percent of the unpaid principal balance
Refinanced mortgage must have a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) no greater than 97.75 percent
Second liens must be re-subordinated so the new loan does not exceed a combined LTV of 115 percent
Because of this last requirement, this program may have difficulty when confronted with situations involving second lien holders.

While this is great news… it’s still going to take some time to get everything rolling. Your thoughts???

Will I have to pay taxes on the $8000.00 tax credit money if I sell my home?

Recently I had a client ask a very profound question… Will I have to pay capital gains or taxes on the $8,000.00 tax credit that I collect when I sell my home and does this money need to be paid back? The best way to answer this is MAYBE. It depends on which credit you took, when your home closed escrow, and when you will be selling your home. According to William Perez, About.com guide, he outlines the program and information as follows:

First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit – Up to $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers

Quick Summary of the First-Time Homebuyer Credit

For 2008: up to $7,500, the credit is paid back over 15 years.
For Jan – Nov 2009: up to $8,000, the credit does not need to be paid back.

For Dec 2009 – April 2010: up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, the credit does not need to be paid back.

For Nov 7, 2009 – April 2010: up to $6,500 for “long-term residents” buying a new home, the credit does not need to be paid back.

Until April 30, 2011: homebuyer credit continues to be available for qualified members of the U.S. uniformed services.

Dollar Amounts of the Homebuyer Tax Credit

The tax credit is worth 10% of the purchase price of the home. For 2008, the maximum credit is $7,500 ($3,750 for married couples filing separate returns). The credit is also limited to the same $7,500 maximum for unmarried persons who purchase a residence together.
For 2009 and 2010, the maximum credit is $8,000 (or $4,000 for married couples filing separately).

Long-term residents purchasing a new home have a lower maximum credit of $6,500, or $3,250 for married couples filing separate returns.

Limit based on Maximum Purchase Price

No tax credit is allowed if the purchase price of the home exceeds $800,000. There’s no phase-out or gradual reduction of the credit.
Qualifying as a First-Time Homebuyer

For the purpose of this tax credit, a first-time homebuyer is defined as someone who has not owned a primary residence in the three-year period ending on the date of purchasing the home. Married couples are considered first-time buyers if neither spouse has owned a residence in the previous three years.
Qualifying as a Long-Term Resident Homebuyer

People who already own a home can qualify for the tax credit if they buy another home. To qualify, individuals needs to have owned and lived in their residence for at least five consecutive years in the eight-year period that ends on the purchase date of the new property.
Extended Deadline for Qualifying Servicemembers

People serving in the U.S. military, intelligence community or Foreign Service on official extended duty outside of the U.S. have an additional year to qualify for the homebuyer credit.
Limited Time Period for Purchasing a Residence

The credit has a very limited life-span. Individuals will need to purchase a residence after April 9, 2008, and before May 1, 2010. Qualified servicemembers must purchase a residence before May 1, 2011.
What’s a Primary Residence

A primary residence is a residence in which an individual lives most of the time. A primary residence can be a house, condominium, co-operative apartment, houseboat, or mobile home.
Because the tax credit is for people who purchase their primary residence, individuals may qualify for the tax credit even if they own a vacation home or rental property as long as those properties were not their primary residence for at least three years preceding the purchase of their new home.

Income Phase-out Range

The credit is phased out for individuals with modified adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $95,000. For married couples filing a joint return, the phase out range is $150,000 to $170,000. Effective Nov 6, 2009, the phase out ranges start at $125,000, or $225,000 for married couples.
Modified AGI for the First-Time Homebuyer Credit

To determine if the tax credit is reduced or eliminated by the income phase-out range, individuals will need to determine their modified adjusted gross income.
For the purposes of determining income eligibility for this credit, adjusted gross income is modified by adding back the following excluded income:

foreign earned income;
income from Guam, American Samoa, or the Northern Mariana Islands;
income from Puerto Rico.
When to Claim the Credit

The credit is fully refundable, meaning taxpayers will be able to obtain an additional federal tax refund of up to $7,500 even if they have no other tax liabilities.
Taxpayers will be able to claim the credit on their 2008 tax return for homes purchased in 2008. For homes purchased in 2009, the IRS will allow the purchasers to file an amended 2008 return to claim the credit. For the 2009 tax credit to show up on the 2008 return, taxpayers will need to elect to treat the 2009 home purchase as if it were made on December 31, 2008. Guidance released by the IRS provides that taxpayers making this election are eligible for the higher $8,000 tax credit amount and do not need to repay the credit if they take their 2009 credit on their 2008 tax return. Similarly, for homes purchased in 2010, the credit can be taken either on a 2009 tax return or on the 2010 tax return.

Repaying the First-Time Homebuyer Credit

The 2008 credit needs to be repaid in equal installments over 15 years. Unlike any other tax credit, the first-time homebuyer credit must be repaid over 15 years. This pay-back feature applies only to homes purchased in 2008. The credit will works like this: you’ll get your refund when you file the tax return. Then the credit will be repaid as an additional tax on your tax return for the next fifteen years, starting with the 2010 tax return. For the maximum $7,500 credit, this works out to annual repayments of $500 per year. This tax credit amounts to an interest-free 15-year loan for first-time homebuyers.
The credit will also need to be repaid in full if the taxpayer sells the house within the fifteen-year repayment period. The credit also needs to be repaid in full if the property is no longer the taxpayer’s primary residence. The credit will be disallowed if a taxpayer sells the house before the end of the same year in which the house was purchased.

Additional information can be found on his article at:http://taxes.about.com/od/deductionscredits/qt/homebuyercredit.htm

Please contact your tax advisor for immediate tax help or if you need a great introduction, contact Edwin Simons at Simons Accountancy Corp. Ed can be reached via email at ed@simonscorp.com or via the web at www.simonscorp.com

Fannie Mae says lenders must verify mortgage applicants’ debt loads before closing

By Kenneth R. Harney – August 29, 2010 – Reporting from Washington —

I just sent out a video about this and now they make changes… please read this and let me know your thoughts on what you think about the “lenders” obligation to report any change. How will that affect the buyer? The Realtors? The Lenders themselves? We shall see…

Despite earlier reports to the contrary, it turns out that your mortgage lender will not have to pull a second full credit report on you hours before closing on your home purchase or refinancing.

In a clarification of a policy announced this year, mortgage giant Fannie Mae now says that applicants will need to come clean about any debts they’ve incurred since they submitted their mortgage application — or debts they never disclosed during the application. But a formal pre-closing credit report will not be mandatory to confirm their creditworthiness.

Instead, loan officers can use other techniques to verify that you haven’t financed a new car, taken out a personal loan or even applied for new credit in any amount that might make it more difficult for you to afford your monthly mortgage payments. Among the techniques Fannie expects lenders to use on all applicants: commercial or in-house fraud-detection systems that have the capability of tracking applicants’ credit files from the day their loan request is approved to the moment of closing.

Though Fannie made no reference to specific services in its recent clarification letter to lenders, some commercially available programs claim to be able to monitor mortgage borrowers’ credit activities on a 24/7 basis, flagging such things as inquiries, new credit accounts and previous accounts that did not show up on the credit report pulled at the time of initial application.

One of those services is marketed by national credit bureau Equifax and dubbed Undisclosed Debt Monitoring. Aimed at what Equifax calls “the quiet period” between application and closing — often a month to three months — the system is “always on,” the company says in marketing pitches to mortgage lenders.

Home loan applicants failed to mention — or loan officers failed to detect — “up to $142 million in auto loan payments” during mortgage underwriting in first-mortgage files reviewed by Equifax last year alone, according to the credit bureau. Those loan accounts had average balances of $361 a month — more than enough to disqualify many borrowers on maximum debt-to-income ratio standards imposed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and major lenders.

Why the sudden concern about new debts incurred after mortgage applications? It’s mainly because Fannie and others have picked up on a key type of consumer behavior pattern that has helped trigger big losses for the mortgage industry in recent years: Some buyers and refinancers delay creating new credit accounts until they’ve cleared strict underwriting tests on the debt-to-income ratios and been approved for a loan.

Then they splurge. Additional debt loads can run into the tens of thousands of dollars, executives in the mortgage and credit industries say. Had those new accounts been present on their credit files at application, borrowers might have been turned down for the mortgage, or required to make a larger down payment or pay a higher interest rate.

Fannie’s new policy puts the burden of detecting these debts squarely on lenders’ or loan officers’ shoulders. Whether they pull additional credit reports — still an option allowed under the revised policy — or use some form of monitoring service, lenders must guarantee that the debt loads stated in any mortgage package submitted for purchase by Fannie Mae are scrupulously accurate as of the moment of closing. If not, the lender probably will be forced to endure the most painful form of punishment in the financial industry: a forced “buyback” of the mortgage from Fannie Mae.

Billions of dollars in buybacks have been demanded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this year alone — a fact that is likely to make lenders even more eager to conduct some type of refresher credit check or continuous monitoring of all new loan applicants.

What does this mean for you if you’re planning to finance a home purchase or refinance your existing mortgage into one with a lower interest rate? Tops on the list: Be aware that sophisticated new credit surveillance systems are being placed into operation in the mortgage industry.

Next, try not to inquire about, shop for or take on new credit obligations during the period between your application and the scheduled closing. If you want that new loan, keep your credit picture simple — no significant changes, no additions — until you get the mortgage.

During the heady days of the housing boom, nobody was looking for debt add-ons before closings. Now they are scanning for them all the time.

kenharney@earthlink.net – Distributed by Washington Post Writers Group. – Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Foreclosures of million-dollar-plus homes on the rise

This is really no surprise; however Lauren did a great job of addressing the facts. Please check out her article and if time permits, click on the short video. It’s well work the time. The number of homes in the $1-million-and-up slice of the market that have become bank owned has tripled during the last three years in Los Angeles County, and the trend has shown little sign of slowing.
By Lauren Beale, Los Angeles Times – August 29, 2010

 
Foreclosure is blind.

After the mortgage meltdown and the plunge in home prices, record numbers of ordinary houses tumbled into foreclosure across Southern California as borrowers became unable or unwilling to pay their mortgages. But the rich aren’t so different after all: Million-dollar-plus homes have reverted to lender ownership in increasing numbers — previous sales prices, prime locations and even celebrity pedigrees have provided no immunity.

Earlier this year, Oscar-winning actor Nicolas Cage’s English Tudor joined the foreclosure fraternity. The nearly 12,000-square-foot house, once marketed at $35 million, now is listed for $11.8 million; the seller, Citibank.

The Bel-Air mansion wasn’t even the most expensive lender-owned property — known in the industry as REO, or real estate owned — in Los Angeles County, according to a records search of houses on the Multiple Listing Service in the county’s most posh ZIP Codes.

Higher priced still was the alleged Wells Fargo party house, which was listed nearly a year ago at $21.5 million and sold this month for $14.95 million. The beachfront house in gated Malibu Colony became the center of controversy when neighbors complained that it was being used by a Wells Fargo & Co. executive for social events; the executive was subsequently fired.

Although the pace of foreclosures has slowed in the general housing market in Southern California and much of the nation, it’s still rising for upper-tier homes.

The number of homes in the $1-million-and-up slice of the market that have become bank owned has tripled in the second quarter compared with the same period three years earlier in Los Angeles County, which has the majority of Southern California’s high-priced REO houses. And the trend has shown little sign of slowing, according to data from ForeclosureRadar.

By comparison, the number of homes reverting to banks in all price ranges combined peaked in the third quarter of 2008.

Many of the reasons the rich lose homes to foreclosure are no different from those of moderate- or low-income borrowers — poor financial management, the loss of a job, a drop in home value — said Mark Goldman, a foreclosure expert and loan officer who teaches about real estate investments and finance at San Diego State University. That the top of the market is still seeing increased foreclosures may reflect the staying power of owners with deeper pockets who could hold on to their homes when the economy first faltered, he said.

Some well-heeled homeowners were hit particularly hard when the stock market tanked and the financial scene fizzled. Others, such as the original owners of the Wells Fargo beach house, saw their investments wiped out by Bernard Madoff’s massive fraud scheme.

But none of that unsavory association was apparent in the polished staging and marketing materials about the 3,800-square-foot home prepared for Wells Fargo by listing agent Chad Rogers of Hilton & Hyland. (“Walls of glass create an unparalleled indoor/outdoor environment…. Wake up to the gleaming Pacific in the sumptuous master suite.”)

In fact, unless one reads the fine print, it is sometimes hard to identify a pricey property gone bad.

Rogers’ Hilton & Hyland colleague David Kramer, however, takes a different approach when selling bank-owned property. A 12,000-square-foot contemporary Mediterranean he has listed with other agents recently hit the market at $8.595 million. Included in the MLS remarks describing the property: “lender owned” and “originally listed at $16.95 million.” Who doesn’t want to know they are getting 50% off?, he said.

Not every REO is owned by a bank. Sometimes the new owner is a private money lender.

One such corporate-owned REO in the Beverly Hills Post Office area is an 11,000-square-foot Mediterranean on more than two acres with a tennis court and swimming pool that is priced at $7,999,000. The original owner had purchased the property in the 1990s, but after borrowing against the property for a business that didn’t survive the economic downturn, he couldn’t support the payments, said listing agent Danny Batsalkin of L.A.-based Boulevard Realty.

Unlike the bank-owned competition, the house comes with an offer of financing — 20% down at a 5.99% interest rate and three years of interest-only payments. “This does make it more attractive,” Batsalkin said.

Changes in banking requiring full-documentation loans have altered the financing picture in the upper end of the market, Goldman said.

“In 2006, you could borrow 70% to 80% on a $10-million house,” he said. “Today you might need 50% down.” Working with a seller that is a bank can present challenges.

“In general, my experience has been that banks are really bad at managing real estate,” Goldman said. “You probably have to go through three or four good offers before someone will sign on the line to sell the asset.”

The lender is not motivated to let the property go at a discount, because it still shows a higher value while it’s on the books, he said.

That opinion, however, is not shared by Karen Caskey, an REO property specialist with RS Capital who is based in Beverly Hills.

The bigger lenders all have specific documents and forms to file, such as proof of cash, said Caskey, who has worked with REO buyers and sellers since 1993. “If all their requirements are met, I’ve had an answer the same day.”

Caskey says she is sometimes competing against multiple offers for multimillion-dollar REOs.

Other lenders are lowering prices. A bank-owned property in Beverly Hills listed at $3.1 million that Caskey has been tracking was dropped to $2.65 million this summer. “There’s good savings in the $2-million- to $4-million range,” she said.

Though there has been much speculation about a so-called shadow inventory of REOs ready to hit the market and depress prices further, Goldman is not concerned.

“We’ve been waiting for a year and a half for the deluge of bank-owned properties, and it hasn’t happened yet,” he said.

Another reason to be less concerned about shadow inventory, Goodman said, is that now there’s more interest from banks to modify loans or go for a short sale, in which the house sells for less than the lenders are owed.

Some high-end homes have not returned to the market and instead are being leased back to their former owners.

“The banks will sell them in four or five years” when prices have rebounded, Caskey said.

In the current market, it can take years to get a new owner into a property that went into default. Retired pro ballplayer Jose Canseco lost an Encino home in 2008 to Washington Mutual. He had purchased the property for $2.785 million. A sale finally is pending on the REO, listed at $2.125 million.

Whether luxury REOs represent bargains that won’t be available again for years remains to be seen.

Bryan Ochse of Media West Realty in Burbank, which works with 11 lending institutions and specializes in REO sales, isn’t betting on it.

“We believe the high end is ready to fall apart,” he said.

Goldman is more optimistic about the market’s recovery.

There has been a lot of talk recently “about a double-dip” in the housing market, Goldman said. “I’ve been thinking of the housing market as a light airplane landing and it kind of bounces. Until things stabilize, we’re going to see some up and down here.”

lauren.beale@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

I’m curious… what are your thoughts? I would love to hear your take on the high end market. Please send me a comment.

Federal foreclosure prevention program is struggling

Photo: foreclosure

Under the main Obama administration program to ease foreclosures, fewer than 37,000 homeowners received permanently lowered mortgage payments in July. Modification cancellations are up.
Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles Times * August 21, 2010

Reporting from Washington — Just as the housing market recovery has stalled, so has the Obama administration’s main program to ease home foreclosures.

Only 36,695 homeowners received permanently lowered mortgage payments in July through the much-criticized Home Affordable Modification Program, the smallest increase since December, administration officials said Friday.

And the number of people dropping out of the program continued to soar. Overall, nearly half the homeowners who entered the program since it launched in March of last year have dropped out.

Many had hoped the $75-billion program would be a silver bullet to the foreclosure problem, but it’s turned out to be a dud, said independent banking analyst Bert Ely. That’s not surprising, he said, given the depth of the housing market crash and recession, combined with a slow recovery.

“Even with a substantial reduction in mortgage payment and even some reduction in principal, you still have people who are over their head financially because of their reduced financial circumstances,” Ely said. “Isn’t it time to just rethink this whole business of modification … and let the market clear through foreclosures and short sales?”

The Los Angeles-Orange County area continued to have the most active trial and permanent modifications under the program, with 44,617 total modifications in July, or 6.6% of the national total. But that was down from 48,846 total modifications in June.

The Inland Empire was third nationwide, with 35,169 total modifications in July, or 5.2% of the total.

So far, 434,716 homeowners nationwide have received permanent modifications since the program began last year. The pace had picked up significantly starting in December after administration officials began pressuring mortgage servicers to convert more three-month trials under the program into permanent modifications.

The number of permanent modifications nearly tripled from January to May. Even in June, the administration reported that more than 50,000 new permanently modified mortgages were added.

July’s slowdown in the program’s growth comes amid a struggling real estate market.

During the second quarter of the year, there were a record 269,952 home foreclosures, up 38% from the same period a year earlier, according to Irvine research firm RealtyTrac. Last month, Southern California home sales plunged 21.4% compared with a year earlier, according to research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

“While there has been some stabilization in the housing market, it remains clear that we have more work ahead,” said Raphael Bostic, an assistant secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The Obama administration program provides cash incentives to servicers to modify mortgages. Homeowners who qualify first get a three-month trial modification with lower payments. If they make those payments, the modification can be made permanent. Only at that point does the servicer get the incentive payment.

The administration’s stated goal was to modify 3 million to 4 million mortgages through 2012.

The pace of new, temporary mortgage modifications under the program slowed in July, increasing just 1.3% to 1.3 million. Overall, about 47% of trial modifications started since the program began have been canceled. In addition, 12,912 permanent modifications have been canceled, mostly because the homeowner missed at least three straight payments.

Increasing numbers of cancellations were the latest problem for the administration’s modification program, which has been plagued by complaints from homeowners of bureaucratic runarounds by servicers, including lost paperwork and unreturned phone calls.

Herbert M. Allison Jr., the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial stability, said the administration expected cancellations to continue as mortgage servicers work through earlier modifications that were made without documentation. Those stated-income modifications were needed last year because so many people were in need of quick foreclosure assistance, he said.

Many of the homeowners who got those early modifications under the program were removed because it turned out they “did not meet the qualifications for various reasons, such as income levels or the fact that they were not in the home itself,” Allison said.

But many of those who were canceled out of the program have been helped by modifications made outside of the Obama administration program.

For the eight largest mortgage servicers, including Bank of America, CitiMortgage and Wells Fargo Bank, 45% of homeowners whose trial modifications were cancelled received an alternative modification. Wells Fargo reported Friday that 87% of the 520,399 active modifications it had done from Jan. 1 to July 31 were through its own programs.

Administration officials said the housing market had stabilized significantly since Obama took office in January 2009, and stressed that homeowners with permanent modifications had a median payment reduction of 36%, or more than $500 a month.

But Bostic said administration officials are not “in happy land” and that the market was not yet “out of the woods.”

Ely said one flaw with the administration’s modification program is that it does not adequately take into account all the other debts faced by homeowners.

“There’s been this hype that you could wave a magic wand, change a few things [with the mortgage payment] and everything would be hunky-dory,” Ely said. “It’s not playing out this way.”

jim.puzzanghera@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times For another great article visit: More Modifications Seem to be Sticking by the Associated Press

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say

Adam and Allison Lyons plan to rent their condo in Chicago until the housing market recovers.

By DAVID STREITFELD * The NY Times – Published: August 22, 2010

Housing will eventually recover from its great swoon. But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg.

Adam and Allison Lyons plan to rent their condo in Chicago until the housing market recovers.

The wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.

More than likely, that era is gone for good.

“There is no iron law that real estate must appreciate,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow. “All those theories advanced during the boom about why housing is special — that more people are choosing to spend more on housing, that more people are moving to the coasts, that we were running out of usable land — didn’t hold up.”

Instead, Mr. Humphries and other economists say, housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, estimates that it will take 20 years to recoup the $6 trillion of housing wealth that has been lost since 2005. After adjusting for inflation, values will never catch up.

“People shouldn’t look at a home as a way to make money because it won’t,” Mr. Baker said.

If the long term is grim, the short term is grimmer. Housing experts are bracing themselves for Tuesday, when the sales figures for July will be released. The data is expected to show a drop of as much as 20 percent from last year.

The supply of homes sitting on the market might rise to as much as 12 months, about twice the level of a healthy market. That would push down prices as all those sellers compete to secure a buyer, adding to a slide that has already chopped off as much as 30 percent in home values.

Set against this dismal present and a bleak future, buying a home is a willful act of optimism. That explains why Adam and Allison Lyons are waiting to close on a $417,500 house in Deerfield, Ill.

“We’re trying not to think too far ahead,” said Ms. Lyons, 35, an information technology manager.

The couple’s first venture into real estate came in 2003 when they bought a condo in a 17-unit building under construction in Chicago. By the time they moved in two years later, it was already worth $50,000 more than they had paid. “We were thinking, great!” said Mr. Lyons, 34.

That quick appreciation started them on the same track as their parents, who watched the value of their houses ascend for decades. The real estate crash interrupted that pleasant dream. The couple cannot sell their condo. Unwillingly, they are becoming landlords.

“I don’t think we’re ever going to see the prosperity our parents did, but I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom either,” said Mr. Lyons, a manager at I.B.M. “At some point, you just have to say what the heck and go for it.”

Other buyers have grand and even grander expectations.

In an annual survey conducted by the economists Robert J. Shiller and Karl E. Case, hundreds of new owners in four communities — Alameda County near San Francisco, Boston, Orange County south of Los Angeles, and Milwaukee — once again said they believed prices would rise about 10 percent a year for the next decade.

With minor swings in sentiment, the latest results reflect what new buyers always seem to feel. At the boom’s peak in 2005, they said prices would go up. When the market was sliding in 2008, they still said prices would go up.

“People think it’s a law of nature,” said Mr. Shiller, who teaches at Yale.

For the first half of the 20th century, he said, expectations followed the opposite path. Houses were seen the way cars are now: as a consumer durable that the buyer eventually used up.

The notion of housing as an investment first began to blossom after World War II, when the nesting urges of returning soldiers created a construction boom. Demand was stoked as their bumper crop of children grew up and bought places of their own. The inflation of the 1970s, which increased the value of hard assets, and liberal tax policies both helped make housing a good bet. So did the long decline in mortgage rates from the early 1980s.

Despite all these tailwinds, prices rose modestly for much of the period. Real home prices increased 1.1 percent a year after inflation, according to Mr. Shiller’s research.

By the late 1990s, however, the rate was 4 percent a year. Happy homeowners were taking about $100 billion a year out of their houses, which paid for a lot of good times.

“The experience we had from the late 1970s to the late 1990s was an aberration,” said Barry Ritholtz of the equity research firm Fusion IQ. “People shouldn’t be holding their breath waiting for it to happen again.”

Not everyone views the notion of real appreciation in real estate as a lost cause.

Bob Walters, chief economist of the online mortgage firm Quicken, acknowledges that the recent collapse will create a “mind scar” just as the Great Depression did. But he argues that housing remains unique.

“You have to live somewhere,” he said. “In three or four years, people will resume a normal course, and home values will continue to increase.”

All homes are different, and some neighborhoods and regions will rebound more quickly. On the other hand, areas where there was intense overbuilding, like Arizona, will be extremely slow to show any sign of renewal.

“It’s entirely likely that markets like Arizona will not recover even in the 15- to 20-year time frame,” said Mr. Humphries of Zillow. “The demand doesn’t exist.”

Owners in those foreclosure-plagued areas consider themselves lucky if they are still solvent. But that does not prevent the occasional regret that a life-changing sum of money was so briefly within their grasp.

Robert Austin, a Phoenix lawyer, paid $200,000 for his home in 2000. Five years later, his neighbors listed a similar home for $500,000.

Freedom beckoned. “I thought, when my daughter gets out of school, I can sell the house and buy a boat and sail around the world,” said Mr. Austin, 56.

His home is now worth about what he paid for it. As for that cruise, “it may be a while,” Mr. Austin said. Showing the hopefulness that is apparently innate to homeowners, he added: “But I won’t rule it out forever.”

A version of this article appeared in print on August 23, 2010, on page A1 of the New York edition.

Home Front: Appraisal sites on Net often fail to pin down accurate prices

Industry participants have stated this for years and now the media is addressing the validity of these online web sites. While they do provide a basic service, along with a decent valuation; the true value of your home can only be determined by the market, not an appraiser, not a Realtor, and not a seller… but the market itself. Your thoughts? Click on the comment section below and let me know…

By Jim Wasserman at the Sacramento Bee * jwasserman@sacbee.com * Published: Friday, Aug. 13, 2010 – 12:00 am | Page 1B

One of the most phenomenal new developments in real estate over the past five years is the ability to look up your home’s approximate value online.

Since Zillow.com launched in February 2006, millions of people now turn to keyboards and mobile phones, punching in home addresses. Here again, the digital revolution freed data from experts and democratized it for the masses.

A number of companies now compete for the eyeballs of homeowners, and the advertising they sell. If you don’t like Zillow’s free estimate of your value, you can get another at Cyberhomes.com, or another at Eppraisal.com.

But here’s the question: How accurate are these sites, really? These are computers talking back at you. They assign your house a value without seeing it and without knowing the neighborhood. Then they hedge their bets with a price range of $20,000 to $40,000 on either side of that value.

Seattle-based Zillow doesn’t claim to be right on the money. But the firm’s chief economist, Stan Humphries, said Thursday, “Our accuracy in the Sacramento metro is very good.” He said “roughly half of homes sold in the metro sell for within 10 percent of the Zestimate.” That’s Zillow’s trade word for estimated values.

Despite that contention, some appraisers and real estate agents hold dim views of Zillow and competitors.

“All these data sources are OK for basic tract homes that have no upgrades or are in average condition,” said Colleen Tiner, who owns Tiner Appraisals in Fair Oaks.

“But when you get anything that’s off average Zillow doesn’t apply at all.”

These online sites, powered by what’s called automated valuation models, have the hardest time in irregular neighborhoods.

If you live on the nicest street of an average neighborhood that’s bordered by a declining neighborhood, the free sites can appear to toss darts at the wall.

An acquaintance in this situation in Sacramento County got three values ranging from $99,000 to $217,000.

Humphries acknowledged that Zillow’s accuracy improves with “the proximity of comparable homes.”

Agents do praise one thing about Web estimates. They educate clients, said Frederick Kuo, broker associate with Prudential NorCal Realty in Carmichael.

“I feel like the greater wealth of information has actually helped me with some clients. They have a more realistic understanding of the market and the process they’ll be going through as a buyer,” he said.

His complaint, though, is about actual values, and Zillow’s in particular. Judging by sales prices, Kuo believes the site “tends to be about 20 percent over actual values” in both newer, homogenized neighborhoods and mixed older ones.

Computers see houses objectively, said Tiner. She said, “We have the experience to estimate the subjectiveness to an appraisal.”

That’s old-fashioned shoe leather that goes beyond algorithms. It’s about knowing neighborhoods, seeing the remodeled kitchen and knowing what a view of the lake is worth.

Zillow’s Humphries said computers can learn.

“Our computer models train themselves daily as new information, such as home sales or user-contributed facts, becomes available,” he said Thursday.

Zillow claims 12 million visitors monthly. Yet a home’s real value always comes down to the oldest formula on Earth: what’s agreed to in a handshake.

© Copyright The Sacramento Bee. All rights reserved.

FHA tells Congress: Mortgage insurance claims are down; home prices a concern

I’m not sure where the numbers are coming from… I still believe that these numbers are falling short of reality. I believe that home prices will once again start to soften, and the claims by the Mortgage Insurance companies will return… What is your take? Read on… and leave me a comment below.

By Dina ElBoghdady
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration have performed better than expected so far this fiscal year, though the improvements could be overturned if home prices sink, according to a report the agency submitted to Congress this week.

The report analyzed the FHA’s loan portfolio from October through June and compared the results to the projections in an independent audit released late last year.

That audit found that as the FHA’s loan volume expanded, its default rate rose and the excess cash it set aside to deal with unexpected losses eroded to dangerously low levels as of Sept. 30. The auditors concluded taxpayers would be on the hook for losses if worst-case scenarios played out — a first for the agency, which has always used fees it charges borrowers to pay lenders for losses.

In its report to Congress this week, the FHA updated lawmakers on the performance of its loans since the audit’s release. The agency said it collected more money than it disbursed in the nine months ended June 30, for a net increase of $446 million. It concluded that FHA loans are holding up better than the audit had predicted on many fronts, in part because the agency has attracted more creditworthy borrowers and rooted out fraudulent lenders.

But the report did not update the excess cash reserves calculated in last year’s audit. Those were about $3.6 billion as of Sept. 30. That represented about 0.53 percent of all outstanding single-family home loans insured by the agency — well below the 2 percent required by law. A new audit is due later this year.

The FHA’s report to Congress said that from October through June, the FHA had 19,310 fewer insurance claims on loans gone bad and paid $3.7 billion less than projected by the audit.

Some states are experiencing a backlog in processing foreclosures, which may help explain the lower-than-expected claims, the report said. But aggressive foreclosure prevention efforts and stabilizing home prices also contributed to the better results.

When home values drop and borrowers end up owing more than their homes are worth, they are vulnerable to foreclosure because they can’t sell their properties or refinance if they face a financial setback.

But just as better-than-predicted home prices have helped the FHA so far this fiscal year, a sustained drop in prices could severely damage its finances going forward.

“That’s the overarching caution,” said Bob Ryan, the agency’s chief risk officer. “We have to think about what loan performance will look like based on what houses’ prices will be doing going forward.”

The most at-risk loans are the ones made in 2007 and 2008, the report said. FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens has told Congress that “rogue players” migrated to FHA lending in those years and used aggressive tactics to attract poor-quality borrowers to the FHA.

Those loans are now maturing into their worst years because failures most often occur two to three years after a mortgage is made. As the loans go bad and clear off the FHA’s books, the agency expects its losses to taper off. The 2009 and 2010 loans — which now make up 60 percent of its outstanding dollar balances — are of better quality, which is why the delinquency rates on those loans are low, the report said.

In the quarter ended June 30, only 0.42 percent of the FHA purchase loans were at least 90 days late within their first six months. By contrast, 2.6 percent of the mortgages in the comparable quarter of 2007 and 1.5 percent of the loans in the same portion of 2008 were seriously late.

The report also said that the FHA has endorsed more than 1.3 million single-family loans in the first three quarters of the fiscal year as of June, and it’s on pace to ensure 1.7 million by the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Home purchase mortgages alone may surpass the one million mark for the first time since 1987. But refinance activity has slowed dramatically since its peak in late 2009

Short sales soar in California, U.S.

Instead of taking over homes through foreclosure and then selling them, many lenders are agreeing to short sales, in which a home is sold for less than the owner owes on the mortgage. (Joe Raedle, Getty Images / July 28, 2010) 104

Real estate deals in which lenders agree to take less for a property than the balance on the mortgage have tripled since 2008, a report says By Tiffany Hsu, Los Angeles Times August 11, 2010

Instead of taking over homes through foreclosure and then selling them, many lenders are agreeing to short sales, in which a home is sold for less than the owner owes on the mortgage. (Joe Raedle, Getty Images / July 28, 2010) 104

Sales of homes for less than the amount of their outstanding mortgage debt have tripled since 2008, particularly in California and the Sunbelt, according to a report released Tuesday.

Known as short sales, the increasingly common transactions for financially troubled homeowners are projected to balloon to 400,000 in 2010, according to Core Logic, a Santa Ana company that provides services to the real estate and mortgage markets. By comparison, existing homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units in June, according to the National Assn. of Realtors.

In an economy in which jobs are scarce and a quarter of homeowners owe more on their property than it’s worth, short sales are appealing to investors, banks and owners as a cheaper way out than foreclosure.

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Such sales will likely remain routine as the mortgage industry attempts to stabilize, according to the report from Core Logic.

Through short sales, lenders and struggling homeowners agree the property will be sold at a loss, allowing the seller to escape crushing debt or the stigma of default. But in the process, the sellers watch their credit scores suffer and the funds they invested in down payments and renovations disappear.

And with fluctuating home prices, lenders can be reluctant to approve short sales. The transactions can be a hassle to execute, especially when multiple loans on a home mean a slew of creditors are included in negotiations.

Also, lenders have been burned in some short sales when they agreed to a below-market sale price only to see the property resold later at a significantly higher price.

Still, even though the number of short sales is still relatively small, the increase shows that lenders now view the transactions as “a good compromise between foreclosures and trying to ride out the market,” said Richard K. Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

The number of transactions has exploded to more than 160,000 in 2009 from roughly 96,000 the year before. More than a quarter of the transactions occur in California, with another quarter split between Arizona, Texas and Florida.

About 4% of short sales are then resold within 18 months, according to Core Logic. The firm studied the short sales of more than 250,000 single-family residences over the last two years.

Short sales, Green said, could actually end up boosting the job market. Unemployed homeowners who can escape underwater mortgages have an easier time moving around, expanding their job search.

“In 2008, it was impossible to do these sales,” he said. “But there’s some regulatory pressure to get stuff off the balance sheet. And lenders are less in denial now, coming to grips with the reality that the economy isn’t going to snap back.”

tiffany.hsu@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Foreclosures rise in July – CNN Money

We have discussed this in the past… the amount of hidden inventory continues to rear it’s ugly head, and the banks are finally moving more of their properties through the pipeline. What does this mean? If you or someone you know and love is in jeopardy of losing their home, get help sooner than later. Agree or disagree??? Let me know your thoughts by leaving a comment below.

This article is written By Les Christie, staff writer – August 12, 2010: NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The latest foreclosure numbers carried a mixed message: They’re up 3.6% from the month before but down 9.7% from 12 months earlier.

In July there were more than 325,000 foreclosure filings — including notices of default, auctions notices and bank repossessions. That is the 17th month in a row total filings exceeded 300,000, said RealtyTrac’s CEO, James Saccacio.

“Declines in new default notices, which were down on a year-over-year basis for the sixth straight month in July,” he said, “have been offset by near-record levels of bank repossessions, which increased on a year-over-year basis for the eighth straight month.”

A near record number of people lost their homes to mortgage payment problems in July. Lender repossessions amounted to 92,858 homes, the second highest monthly total ever behind the 93,777 recorded this May.

Repossession is the final stage in the foreclosure process. People can stay in thier homes until the point that the bank takes posession of the home or sells it at auction.

Please understand… as of right now, the banks are being much more proactive about removing homeowners from their homes. Once it goes to sale, experience shows that it’s probably not going to be favorable.