Lenders’ data mining goes deep

I love the data… I dislike that big brother has that much control and knows more about me than my family and friends… read on and let me know your thoughts.

Mortgage makers are going beyond tax returns and bank statements to determine whether you’re a good risk. They’re checking such things as where you have pizza delivered and where you shop online.

Reporting from Washington — That pizza you had delivered the other night could mean the difference between whether you are approved for a mortgage or rejected.

There’s a big stretch between making a house payment and paying for a pizza. But it’s not what you pay for carryout that matters, at least not in the eyes of lenders. It’s where the food was delivered.

Ordering takeout proves that you live where you say you do, and that helps lenders uncover the crook who claims to live in the property he is trying to refinance when he really lives hundreds of miles away. Or expose the 35-year-old who says he has a $1,200-a-month apartment when he really lives rent-free with Mom and Dad.

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When you order food online, you become part of a vast database that lenders might tap to help them determine whether you are a good risk. Moreover, all sorts of these data reservoirs exist, and none of them is off-limits to lenders who are coming off the worst financial debacle since the Great Depression.

“If the data is available and it can be obtained legally, I’m going to test it,” says Alex Santos, president of Digital Risk, an Orlando, Fla., analytics firm that works with lenders and investors to build better underwriting mousetraps. “If it is inexpensive and makes my credit model better, I’m going to use it.”

Digital Risk is just one of numerous risk-management companies that are continuously probing for ways to help clients quantify their risk, prevent fraud and otherwise ensure the quality of their loans. And they’re going to extraordinary lengths to do so.

For example, they might peek into your online-buying habits. After all, the reasoning goes, someone who buys his shirts from a Brooks Brothers catalog may have more disposable income than someone who shops at JCPenney.

“At least that’s a theory we can test,” Santos says. “We’re looking for any type of data source that you can plug into a computer. It takes only a month of trial and error to determine whether the information can help [determine credit risk] or not. We have a hypothesis, push a button, and the computer tells us whether the data is predictive or not.”

This sort of data mining goes way beyond your credit score, that financial snapshot that measures your ability and willingness to repay your debt. And, Santos says, “there’s a tremendous amount of this kind of analytics going on right now.”

Lenders are still checking credit histories, not just when you apply for a mortgage but also a second time a day or two before the loan closes. But your credit score — known as a FICO score for the name of the company that created the scoring formula — is now considered “too broad.” Consequently, it has moved down in the hierarchy of tests that lenders are using to make certain that someone isn’t hoodwinking them.

First and foremost, lenders are pulling copies of your tax returns directly from Uncle Sam.

Don’t be alarmed. You give the lender permission to do that when you sign Form 4506-T. The idea here is to make sure that you haven’t altered the copy of your last two years’ tax returns that you provided when you signed your loan application. Lenders want to know if you might have exaggerated how much you earned.

Form 4506-T isn’t new. But a few years ago, at the height of the housing-market bonanza when home loans were easy to come by, many lenders failed to use it. Now practically everyone is going straight to the federal tax collector to compare the returns you provided with those on file with the IRS.

Lenders also are going to great lengths to verify employment and assets. Not only are they calling the name and work number you provided on your application, but they also are seeking confirmation in writing from your employer about what you earn, your position and how long you’ve worked there.

It’s the same for your bank accounts. Rather than being satisfied solely with the copies of the bank statements you provided, lenders are going directly to your bank to secure another set of those statements to make sure the numbers line up.

Lenders are no longer taking the appraiser’s word for how much the property you want to buy or refinance is worth, either. Now, they are employing automated valuation models as a second line of defense to be certain the appraiser’s estimate is on the money.

Next in the line of defenses is your credit score, but not just the score pulled when you applied for the loan. Now, they are pulling a second score shortly before closing to make sure that you haven’t taken out a car loan, bought a houseful of furniture on credit or done something else that might change your ability to make your house payments.

Lenders also are searching for other undisclosed liabilities by running your Social Security number through a huge database known as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.

Since 1997, more than 63 million mortgages have been registered on the MERS tracking system, each with a distinct 18-digit identification number. So, if you have another mortgage that you “forgot” to tell your lender about, this check will probably find it.

Now, too, the most cautious lenders are digging into noncredit proprietary databases such as those maintained by Papa John’s or Victoria’s Secret. And nothing is out of the realm of possibility. The “only boundary,” says Digital Risk’s Santos, is whether information can be accessed legally.

As long as it does not distinguish between race, religion, age and other “protected” classes, anything is fair game.

Distributed by United Feature Syndicate.
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs

By Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal – July 26th

After rising in May, the rate of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures fell in June.

Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.

The ratio of loans that were seriously delinquent, or 90 days or more past due, to the amount of loans in foreclosure still shows a sizeable overhang but fell for the second straight month, to levels last seen last September. The fact that there are still more than double the number of delinquent loans than loans in foreclosure suggests that the glut of bank-owned properties will continue to weigh on housing markets for many months to come.

Foreclosure starts increased sharply during the month on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as more government loan-modification trials failed to convert to permanent modifications. On Friday, Freddie said that its share of seriously delinquent loans fell for the fourth straight month, to 3.96% in June.

Separately, the S&P/Experian index of consumer credit defaults showed that that mortgage defaults were down by 5% in June from May, and down by 45% from one year ago. Second mortgage defaults were flat from one month earlier.

Data from Equifax and Moody’s Economy.com showed that mortgage delinquencies had the largest increase in San Diego; Sacramento, Calif.; and Charlotte, N.C. during the second quarter.

For the year ended in June, delinquencies were up most sharply in Phoenix, Seattle, and Charlotte, while St. Louis, Washington, and Denver posted the largest declines.

While I think that this is a great article, I believe personally that his numbers fall short. There are far more than 9.39% of all mortgages that are currently delinquent. I’m curious… what are your thoughts about the state of affairs and where the market is headed?

VA Loans Getting Harder To Get!

Va Loans

This is truly frustrating in my opinion… VA Buyers are finally back in the game and it’s becoming harder for them to get financing.

Va Loans

MILITARY veterans have long been accustomed to a relatively easy mortgage process. Even borrowers with no down payment or a low credit score were usually granted V.A. loans, in large part because the Department of Veterans Affairs insures a quarter of the loan amount.

But about two years ago, lenders began limiting the conditions under which they would offer these mortgages, and industry executives say that since the start of the year, all the nation’s major lenders have followed suit.

“It’s been a tightening across the board,” said Nathan Long, the chief executive of VAMortgageCenter.com, an online broker of V.A. mortgages.

Lenders will still offer V.A. loans with no down payment, he said, but “if you have a credit score of 610, the best thing to do is work on your credit and try again in a couple of months, because you don’t really have any options.”

Mr. Long says major lenders like Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, typically will not offer V.A. loans to borrowers with credit scores below 610. Debora Blume, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo, said the cutoff score for her bank’s V.A.-insured loans was 600.

The tighter credit policies also extend to the Streamline Refinance program, which allows borrowers with V.A. loans to refinance into another V.A. loan with very little paperwork and, until recently, no appraisal.

Mr. Long and V.A. representatives say that lenders are now requiring borrowers to pay for an appraisal, which can cost $300 or more depending on a home’s location. If the new loan amount is more than the value of the home, they will most likely reject the application.

Not surprisingly, V.A. loan volume has fallen so far this year. William White, the acting assistant director for loan policy at Veterans Affairs, said his agency was on pace to insure about 300,000 mortgages this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, versus 325,000 in 2009. The nation’s overall loan volume rose about 19 percent during the same period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, to $1.92 trillion from $1.62 trillion. (The trade group tracks only total dollar amount.)

Mr. White said he understood why lenders might be restricting the loans, as the V.A. insurance only covers 25 percent of the loan amount. But he added that borrowers of V.A. loans generally had a lower default rate than prime borrowers over all — 2.6 percent versus 3.4 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association — despite the fact that their credit scores were typically lower.

V.A. mortgage borrowers tend to “show some discipline,” Mr. White said, offering one explanation, “and we think they try real hard to make their payments.”

The average credit score for a V.A. borrower last year was just over 700, while the average credit score for all borrowers was 750, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that establish underwriting standards.

Mr. Long noted that V.A. loans remain competitive with other loan products. Borrowers who qualify — they must prove 24 months of continuous active military duty, and cannot have experienced a dishonorable discharge, among other things — can secure rates of 4.75 percent on 30-year fixed-rate loans, he said. That is the case even for borrowers with 620 credit scores, he added. The average rate nationwide for all 30-year fixed-rate loans is around 4.70 percent.

There is a one-time insurance fee that varies according to the size of the loan and the borrower’s credit profile, but the average is about 1.75 percent of the loan amount. On a $200,000 mortgage the cost would be $3,500. About a quarter of applicants — disabled or retired veterans, for instance — qualify for exemptions from that payment.
A version of this article appeared in print on June 27, 2010, on page RE7 of the New York edition.

Homebuyer credit extension heads to Obama

An excellent article to clarify the existing tax credit; however please watch the video from CNN Money with Meridith Whitney commenting on the state of affiars of our current real estate market… very well done!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — First-time homebuyers will have until Sept. 30 to close on their purchases and land an $8,000 tax credit under a bill passed by the Senate late Wednesday.

President Obama is expected to sign the bill, which was overwhelmingly approved by the House on Tuesday. The deadline had been June 30.

The bill doesn’t help anyone currently shopping for a home. Buyers must have signed a contract by April 30 to qualify for the tax break. At issue is when the deal must be finalized.

Qualified existing homeowners also have until Sept. 30 to close on new homes and receive a tax credit of up to $6,500.

Congress has been trying to pass the extension for the last month, but it got caught up in Washington politics. Only when it was separated from a larger jobs bill did deficit-wary lawmakers sign off on it. The extension will lower the deficit by $9 million over a decade since it is offset by certain other provisions.

An estimated 200,000 people have missed out on the tax credit because they wouldn’t have been able to close by the end of business Wednesday. Many are trying to take advantage of short sales, which are complicated deals to complete.

The Senate approved the stand-alone homebuyers tax credit shortly after a failed attempt to advance a bill that combined the credit with an unemployment benefits extension.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said the chamber will take up the benefits bill again once a replacement for the late Senator Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., is named. – By Tami Luhby, senior writerJuly 1, 2010: 10:54 AM ET

High default rate seen for modified mortgages – As seen in the Wall Street Journal

By JAMES R. HAGERTY

Fitch Ratings Ltd. forecasts that most borrowers who get lower mortgage payments under a federal government program will default within 12 months.

Among those with loans that aren’t backed by any federal agency, the redefault rate within a year is likely to be 65% to 75% under the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, according to a report to be released Wednesday by Fitch, a New York-based credit-rating firm. Almost all of those who got loan modifications have already defaulted once.

Diane Pendley, a managing director at Fitch, said the failure rate was likely to be high largely because most of these borrowers were mired in credit-card debt, car loans and other obligations.

Backsliding

The Treasury Department has said that among people who have been given loan modifications under HAMP, the median ratio of total debt payments to pretax income is still 64%. That often means little money is left over for food, clothing or such emergency expenses as medical care and car repairs.

“The borrower remains in a very high-risk situation,” Ms. Pendley said in an interview. “The other debts don’t go away.”

A Treasury official said HAMP “is making a real difference in the lives of hundreds of thousands of homeowners.” He said the government has reduced the risk of redefault by offering financial incentives to borrowers who remain current on loan payments.

Fitch based the redefault forecast on the performance of loans that were modified in the first quarter of 2009. Those modifications were done outside of HAMP, which took effect later in the year. But Ms. Pendley doesn’t expect a major difference between the results of HAMP modifications and those made under lenders’ programs.

Even if two-thirds of the loan modifications fail, Ms. Pendley said, that doesn’t mean HAMP is a failure. “If you can save one-third of the borrowers, I think it is worth the exercise,” she said. She also said the HAMP program, announced in early 2009, had provided a basic outline for loan servicers to follow in modifying loans. Loan servicers, often owned by banks, collect payments and handle foreclosures. Previously they were “all over the place” in their methods for dealing with foreclosures, Ms. Pendley said.

At the end of April, about 295,000 households were benefiting from long-term modifications under HAMP, which typically involves cutting the interest rate as low as 2%, according to the Treasury. Another 637,000 households were in trial modifications, under which they need to show they can make their new, lower payments consistently and provide documents proving they are eligible. Under the $50 billion HAMP program, the federal government provides financial incentives to borrowers, loan servicers and mortgage investors for modifying loans.

Andrew Jakabovics, an associate director at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank with ties to the Obama administration, said results of HAMP so far were mixed. Borrowers continue to complain that it often takes months, and sometimes more than a year, to get decisions from servicers on whether a loan can be modified on a long-term basis. Mr. Jakabovics said the program would work better if the government dealt directly with applicants for HAMP and decided which ones qualified, rather than delegating that function to servicers.

But Mr. Jakabovics said he didn’t expect major changes in HAMP, which is scheduled to remain in effect through 2012. “For better or worse,” he said, “what we’ve got now is what we’re going to go with.”

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

Loan-modification dropouts rise -

Great article just published on Monday, May 17, 2010

By ALAN ZIBEL
The Associated Press

The number of homeowners dropping out of the Obama administration’s main mortgage assistance plan is growing, and is now almost equal to the number who have received permanent relief.

The Treasury Department’s report Monday was the latest evidence of problems in the administration’s $75 billion program. While officials insist the program is helping the housing market turn around, critics say it is merely delaying an inevitable surge in foreclosures.

More than 299,000 homeowners had received permanent loan modifications as of last month, Treasury said. That’s about 25 percent of the 1.2 million who started the program since its March 2009 launch. They are paying, on average, $516 less each month.

However, the number of people who started the process but failed to get their mortgages permanently modified rose dramatically in April.

To complete the program, borrowers must make at least three payments on time. About 277,000 homeowners, or 23 percent of those enrolled, have dropped out during this trial phase. That’s up from about 155,000 a month earlier, or a 79 percent increase.

Many borrowers are still stuck in limbo, unable to complete the process and caught up in an often-bewildering bureaucracy.

“These mortgage companies have to get it together,” said Henrietta Thompson, housing coordinator with United Family Services in Charlotte, N.C. “We’re not getting anything done.”

Treasury officials acknowledge that long delays have been a problem.

“Homeowners are waiting. We want them to get answers as rapidly as possible,” said Herbert Allison, an assistant Treasury secretary.

After a one-year struggle with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Giselle Embry, 56, of Escondido, was finally able to get a loan modification through the program.

“They kept calling me and asking me to send the same things,” she said. “I felt like they just wanted to run me around until I got so frustrated that I gave up.”

Embry fell behind on her mortgage. An illness forced her to go on disability for six months and her hours as a career adviser were shortened because of state budget cuts. Her new loan payment is $622 a month, more than half of her initial payment.

A Chase spokeswoman declined to comment on Embry’s case. She said the bank has hired 9,000 workers to handle foreclosure cases, opened 51 centers around the country where borrowers can meet with bank officials and held foreclosure prevention events around the country.

The program is designed to lower borrowers’ monthly payments by reducing mortgage rates to as low as 2 percent for five years and extending loan terms to as long as 40 years.

There have been problems from the start. One of the big ones: Initially, many of the participating banks allowed borrowers to state their income verbally and provide proof of their income later. That jammed up the system as many borrowers didn’t provide a complete set of documents, and some complained that their information was lost.

The mortgage companies that required homeowners to provide proof of their incomes have had a much better track record. HomEq Servicing Inc. and Ocwen Financial Corp. were able to convert more than 80 percent of their participating borrowers to permanent status, according to the Treasury Department.

By contrast, the four largest banks in the program have been far less successful. Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. have successfully processed about 25 percent of their applications. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. have been able to convert 22 percent and 21 percent, respectively, of their applicants to permanent status.

Treasury officials have directed lenders to shift to a new system. Starting with loan modifications that go into effect June 1, they are required to collect two recent pay stubs at the start of the process.

Housing analysts are also watching the number of borrowers who drop out after completing the program.

If You Don’t Buy a House Now, You’re Stupid or Broke

A recent article in Business Week caught my eye.  Please take a minute to read the following and let me know your thoughts.

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don’t want to move. Or maybe you’re a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don’t act soon, you will regret it. Here’s why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let’s look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren’t happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.
Interest Rate Lessons

And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We’ve since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.
Loan Costs

Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let’s put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is “more stable” and it’s safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you’re borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I’m trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

So… are you convinced?   What has to happen in order for you to take action right now?   Let me know what you think.