Lenders’ data mining goes deep

I love the data… I dislike that big brother has that much control and knows more about me than my family and friends… read on and let me know your thoughts.

Mortgage makers are going beyond tax returns and bank statements to determine whether you’re a good risk. They’re checking such things as where you have pizza delivered and where you shop online.

Reporting from Washington — That pizza you had delivered the other night could mean the difference between whether you are approved for a mortgage or rejected.

There’s a big stretch between making a house payment and paying for a pizza. But it’s not what you pay for carryout that matters, at least not in the eyes of lenders. It’s where the food was delivered.

Ordering takeout proves that you live where you say you do, and that helps lenders uncover the crook who claims to live in the property he is trying to refinance when he really lives hundreds of miles away. Or expose the 35-year-old who says he has a $1,200-a-month apartment when he really lives rent-free with Mom and Dad.

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When you order food online, you become part of a vast database that lenders might tap to help them determine whether you are a good risk. Moreover, all sorts of these data reservoirs exist, and none of them is off-limits to lenders who are coming off the worst financial debacle since the Great Depression.

“If the data is available and it can be obtained legally, I’m going to test it,” says Alex Santos, president of Digital Risk, an Orlando, Fla., analytics firm that works with lenders and investors to build better underwriting mousetraps. “If it is inexpensive and makes my credit model better, I’m going to use it.”

Digital Risk is just one of numerous risk-management companies that are continuously probing for ways to help clients quantify their risk, prevent fraud and otherwise ensure the quality of their loans. And they’re going to extraordinary lengths to do so.

For example, they might peek into your online-buying habits. After all, the reasoning goes, someone who buys his shirts from a Brooks Brothers catalog may have more disposable income than someone who shops at JCPenney.

“At least that’s a theory we can test,” Santos says. “We’re looking for any type of data source that you can plug into a computer. It takes only a month of trial and error to determine whether the information can help [determine credit risk] or not. We have a hypothesis, push a button, and the computer tells us whether the data is predictive or not.”

This sort of data mining goes way beyond your credit score, that financial snapshot that measures your ability and willingness to repay your debt. And, Santos says, “there’s a tremendous amount of this kind of analytics going on right now.”

Lenders are still checking credit histories, not just when you apply for a mortgage but also a second time a day or two before the loan closes. But your credit score — known as a FICO score for the name of the company that created the scoring formula — is now considered “too broad.” Consequently, it has moved down in the hierarchy of tests that lenders are using to make certain that someone isn’t hoodwinking them.

First and foremost, lenders are pulling copies of your tax returns directly from Uncle Sam.

Don’t be alarmed. You give the lender permission to do that when you sign Form 4506-T. The idea here is to make sure that you haven’t altered the copy of your last two years’ tax returns that you provided when you signed your loan application. Lenders want to know if you might have exaggerated how much you earned.

Form 4506-T isn’t new. But a few years ago, at the height of the housing-market bonanza when home loans were easy to come by, many lenders failed to use it. Now practically everyone is going straight to the federal tax collector to compare the returns you provided with those on file with the IRS.

Lenders also are going to great lengths to verify employment and assets. Not only are they calling the name and work number you provided on your application, but they also are seeking confirmation in writing from your employer about what you earn, your position and how long you’ve worked there.

It’s the same for your bank accounts. Rather than being satisfied solely with the copies of the bank statements you provided, lenders are going directly to your bank to secure another set of those statements to make sure the numbers line up.

Lenders are no longer taking the appraiser’s word for how much the property you want to buy or refinance is worth, either. Now, they are employing automated valuation models as a second line of defense to be certain the appraiser’s estimate is on the money.

Next in the line of defenses is your credit score, but not just the score pulled when you applied for the loan. Now, they are pulling a second score shortly before closing to make sure that you haven’t taken out a car loan, bought a houseful of furniture on credit or done something else that might change your ability to make your house payments.

Lenders also are searching for other undisclosed liabilities by running your Social Security number through a huge database known as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.

Since 1997, more than 63 million mortgages have been registered on the MERS tracking system, each with a distinct 18-digit identification number. So, if you have another mortgage that you “forgot” to tell your lender about, this check will probably find it.

Now, too, the most cautious lenders are digging into noncredit proprietary databases such as those maintained by Papa John’s or Victoria’s Secret. And nothing is out of the realm of possibility. The “only boundary,” says Digital Risk’s Santos, is whether information can be accessed legally.

As long as it does not distinguish between race, religion, age and other “protected” classes, anything is fair game.

Distributed by United Feature Syndicate.
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Deeds-in-lieu gain favor with lenders as alternative to foreclosure

Very well written and clear interpretation of what to expect with a deed in lieu – Let’s see how many homeowners this will help.

Short sales have been the hot solution for financially stressed homeowners and their lenders for the last year, but here’s another potent foreclosure alternative that’s about to take center stage: deeds-in-lieu.

Some of the largest mortgage servicers and lenders in the country are gearing up campaigns to reach out to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth with cash incentives that sometimes range into five figures, plus a simple message: Let’s bypass all the time-consuming hassles of short sales and foreclosures. Just deed us the title to your underwater home and we’ll call it a deal. We won’t come after you to collect any deficiency between what you owe us on the mortgage and what we obtain from the home sale. We might even be able to wrap up the whole transaction in as little as 30 to 45 days. How about it?

Mortgage companies say troubled borrowers increasingly are signing up. One of the largest servicers, Bank of America, has mailed out 100,000 deed-in-lieu solicitations to customers in the last 60 days, and its volume of completed transactions is breaking company records, according to officials.

What precisely are deeds-in-lieu? The full name is deeds-in-lieu-of-foreclosure. They are voluntary transfers of property ownership from borrowers to creditors that make court-directed foreclosures unnecessary.

The concept is one of the oldest in real estate, but it got a boost this year when the Obama administration included it as an option in its Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, and mortgage giant Fannie Mae cut the penalty-box time for homeowners who use the technique from four years to two before they can qualify for another home mortgage.

Deeds-in-lieu also are surging because they provide a win-win for borrowers and mortgage investors that short sales often cannot match. Tops on the list: speed. Travis Hamel Olsen, chief operating officer of Loan Resolution Corp., a Scottsdale, Ariz., firm that works with lenders to solve troubled borrowers’ problems, said deeds-in-lieu represented “a very expeditious way to move on” for underwater borrowers who are facing potential foreclosure.

“A lot of owners just want to be finished with it, now,” he said. “They don’t want to deal with [the house] anymore.”

They don’t want to deal with real estate agents or signs on the front lawn that reveal their financial squeeze to neighbors. They don’t want to haggle with potential buyers coming in with low-ball prices. But they also don’t want to simply walk away because that will affect their credit files and scores for as long as seven years.

A key motivation for lenders is that they are stuck with massive backlogs of underwater homes that haven’t yet gone through foreclosure and been put on the market — the so-called shadow inventory, said Greg Hebner, president of MOS Group Inc. of San Diego, which works with banks and investors across the country to resolve defaulting borrowers’ situations.

Not only is it cheaper for lenders to do deeds-in-lieu to gain control of those properties, but with current mortgage rates below 5%, they’re likely to be able to resell the properties faster and on potentially more favorable terms in the summer and fall.

“If you can get a lot of inventory moving in the next couple of months” of prime home-buying season, Hebner said, “you are solving a lot of problems.”

Matt Vernon, Bank of America’s top short sale and deed-in-lieu executive, said the technique worked so well for both borrowers and mortgage owners that his company was running pilot programs in major housing markets to alert borrowers who might benefit but are not familiar with deeds-in-lieu.

To sweeten the pot, Bank of America is offering cash incentives that range from $3,000 to $15,000 — and is getting a strong response, Vernon said.

What are the downsides or limitations of deeds-in-lieu for homeowners? Probably the most important, experts said, is that they don’t work for every situation involving serious mortgage default. For example, if you have equity in the property, you’ll probably want to pursue a loan modification first, rather than hand over your equity stake to the lender.

Deeds-in-lieu usually don’t work when there are multiple mortgages from different creditors encumbering the property. Also, though deeds-in-lieu do less damage to borrowers’ credit histories than foreclosures or bankruptcies, they definitely leave a mark. Fair Isaac, developer of the widely used FICO credit score, says on its MyFico website that deeds-in-lieu and short sales are both treated as “not paid as agreed” accounts, and are treated the same by the FICO scoring model.

kenharney@earthlink.net – Distributed by Washington Post Writers Group.
By Kenneth R. Harney – LA Times Business…

Homebuyer credit extension heads to Obama

An excellent article to clarify the existing tax credit; however please watch the video from CNN Money with Meridith Whitney commenting on the state of affiars of our current real estate market… very well done!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — First-time homebuyers will have until Sept. 30 to close on their purchases and land an $8,000 tax credit under a bill passed by the Senate late Wednesday.

President Obama is expected to sign the bill, which was overwhelmingly approved by the House on Tuesday. The deadline had been June 30.

The bill doesn’t help anyone currently shopping for a home. Buyers must have signed a contract by April 30 to qualify for the tax break. At issue is when the deal must be finalized.

Qualified existing homeowners also have until Sept. 30 to close on new homes and receive a tax credit of up to $6,500.

Congress has been trying to pass the extension for the last month, but it got caught up in Washington politics. Only when it was separated from a larger jobs bill did deficit-wary lawmakers sign off on it. The extension will lower the deficit by $9 million over a decade since it is offset by certain other provisions.

An estimated 200,000 people have missed out on the tax credit because they wouldn’t have been able to close by the end of business Wednesday. Many are trying to take advantage of short sales, which are complicated deals to complete.

The Senate approved the stand-alone homebuyers tax credit shortly after a failed attempt to advance a bill that combined the credit with an unemployment benefits extension.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said the chamber will take up the benefits bill again once a replacement for the late Senator Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., is named. – By Tami Luhby, senior writerJuly 1, 2010: 10:54 AM ET

Troubled homeowners find help outside Obama program

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Great article explaining the continued challenges with Loan Modifications and our current state of affairs.

More mortgages were permanently modified in May under the government program, but more modifications were canceled as well. Some of those borrowers worked out alternative terms with private lenders.

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A distressed home awaits a buyer in Davie, Fla. Mortgage servicers have been pressured by the government to make more loan modifications permanent. (J Pat Carter, Associated Press / May 12, 2010)
By Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Washington —

More borrowers dropped out of the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention program last month than were added, but many of those homeowners found private help from their mortgage companies, according to data released Monday.

The number of mortgages with permanently reduced payments under the Home Affordable Modification Program increased 15% in May to 340,459. The pace of new temporary three-month modifications eased in May, with an increase of just 2.5% to 1,244,184.

But cancellations of mortgage modifications continued to grow. Canceled trial modifications rose 55% in May from April. More than a third of all trial modifications started since the program began last year — 429,696 — now have been canceled.

Cancellations of permanent modifications also were up sharply, rising 70% to 6,357 in May from April.

But overall, homeowners with permanently reduced mortgage payments have fared better in the program. The cancellations amount to just 1.8% of all the permanent modifications offered since the program began last year.

The administration’s report said that at the eight largest mortgage servicers, including Bank of America, CitiMortgage and JPMorgan Chase, nearly half of homeowners whose temporary government modifications were cancelled received an alternative modification.

Of the 194,056 total cancellations for those servicers under the Obama administration’s plan, just 7% resulted in foreclosure actions. An additional 2% resulted in a short sale.

The Los Angeles-Orange County area continued to account for the most active trial and permanent modifications under the administration program, with 52,119, or 6.4% of the national total. The New York City area was second with 6.1%. The Inland Empire ranked fourth with 5%.

The $75-billion Home Affordable Modification Program offers mortgage servicers cash incentives to reduce mortgage holders’ payments. The goal is to modify the mortgages for 3 million to 4 million people by the end of 2012. The median payment reduction in permanent modifications has been about $500 a month.

But the program has been criticized for not helping enough homeowners and for slow participation and bureaucratic runarounds by major mortgage servicers.

Administration officials increased pressure on mortgage servicers in December to make more of the modifications permanent.

As part of that process, the administration reviewed cases in which some servicers denied mortgage modifications. Officials agreed with most of the decisions, but in 3.9% of the cases, reviewers disagreed with the servicers’ decisions and ordered the firms to hold off on foreclosure action until the cases were reevaluated.

jim.puzzanghera@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

Want a loan modification? Get your paperwork ready. CNNMoney.com

Are you or someone you know thinking about getting a loan modification? Read this article first!

Another top notch article from NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Attention delinquent borrowers: If you want to get into the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program, you’d better have your paperwork ready.

New Treasury Department guidelines go into effect on June 1 that will require loan servicers to verify applicants’ income and financial hardship before placing them into trial modifications.
This will make it much tougher to get temporary relief from unaffordable mortgage payments. But if you make it into a trial modification, you’re more likely to get long-term assistance, providing you send in your check on time.

“This will allow people to have more certainty that the modification they want will materialize,” said Suzanne Boas, president of CredAbility, formerly the Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Atlanta.

Of the 1.2 million people who’ve started trial modifications, fewer than 300,000 have received permanent assistance. Another 278,000 have washed out of the program either because they didn’t send in timely payments, hand in the required documents or meet the eligibility criteria.

Paperwork has caused all sorts of problems for the president’s signature foreclosure rescue program. In order to get the effort off the ground quickly, administration officials allowed servicers to place people in trial modifications before verifying that they were indeed eligible for the program.

Originally intended to last three months, the trial period was meant to give troubled borrowers a chance to prove they could make the modified payments and qualify for a so-called permanent modification, which lasts five years.

Instead, many homeowners have been stuck in trial modifications for months and months while they wrestle with servicers over the documentation requirements. The financial institutions say that borrowers aren’t sending in the needed forms; homeowners contend the servicers are losing them.

At Saxon Mortgage Services and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), for instance, about three of four borrowers in the trial phase have lingered there for at least six months.

A few servicers, however, have been requiring documentation up front all along. And the impact of this practice is evident in the government’s monthly modification report. Firms such as Ocwen Financial (OCN) and HomeEq Servicing have converted 83% of eligible borrowers to permanent modifications. Others that rely on stated income to place people in trials have yet to shift half their participants to long-term adjustments.

Many loans didn’t require much documentation when they were originated, which makes gathering the paperwork during the modification process that much more difficult, said Paul Koches, executive vice president at Ocwen. But doing so helps servicers craft sustainable payment plans.

“It puts us in a better position to determine the specific terms and conditions of the modified loans that will make it more likely that they will stick,” he said.

The pace of people entering trial modifications has already slowed as servicers have started requiring the paperwork in advance. Only 47,160 trials were started in April, down from more than 72,000 in February.

“You have pinging back and forth between borrowers and servicers,” said David Sisko, who heads Deloitte & Touche’s default management practice. “Requiring upfront documentation to really start the clock is a good thing.”

Though the application process takes longer, borrowers understand that they will now have a better ideas of whether they’ll get long-term assistance, said a Chase spokesperson.

Among the documents Chase and other servicers require are hardship affidavits, two recent pay stubs, a bank statement, a tax return, proof of occupancy and a 4506T-EZ form.

“If they make the trial payments, it’s almost certain they’ll get a permanent modification because all the paperwork has been done upfront,” she said.

Luxury Sales Bounce Back…

san fran house

An interesting article to say the least… I still believe that this market has some corrections left to address. Your thoughts?

By JULIET CHUNG and JAMES R. HAGERTY at the WSJ

For years, Jennifer Metz and her husband John yearned for a bigger home in San Francisco. Three months ago, the couple started looking, figuring that in this shaky economy, their $3 million budget should provide them a pick of attractive homes and accommodating sellers.
Luxury Going Fast

massachechets house

Kimberly Hallen/Boston Virtual Imaging – A Cambridge, Massachusetts home

They were wrong. Hours after seeing a 5,000-square-foot fixer-upper in Presidio Heights with an asking price around $2.7 million, the Metzes put in a bid—and lost. Soon after, they made another offer on a four-bedroom in Russian Hill. Their bid was rejected.

Last week, the Metzes rushed over to a large, dilapidated home in Pacific Heights that needed a lot of work but was asking the (relatively) low price of $2.25 million. The Metzes put in their over-ask bid the next day, but lost that one too: There were nine offers; the winning bid was $2.56 million.

“It’s frustrating,” says Ms. Metz, a 44-year-old stay-at-home mom whose husband works in finance. “You think you put in a good offer but, no.”

After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing. Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation’s most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers. Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic.

san fran house
Sotheby’s

$2,146-per-square-foot is what a buyer paid for this elaborately redone San Francisco home that has a vanishing wall.

That sales are up from last year shouldn’t come as a big surprise. The shock of the financial panic in the fall of 2008 left many potential buyers too nervous to bid, and those who were willing to wade in found it hard to get financing. But a study for The Wall Street Journal by MDA DataQuick, a real-estate data provider, found that in some areas of the country, sales of homes over $2 million in the first quarter were actually on par with the levels of 2005, the peak year for existing-home sales volume nationwide.

In San Francisco, 49 homes sold for $2 million or more in this year’s first quarter, according to the study, compared to 47 in 2005. In Manhattan, there were 402 sales of $2 million or more in the latest quarter, compared with 311 in the first quarter of 2005, according to the appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. Other areas with strong rebounds included New York’s Hamptons, Menlo Park, Calif., and Beverly Hills.

Even a couple of troubled housing markets experienced a strong uptick. In Las Vegas, there were 21 such sales in the first quarter, up from 15 in the first quarter of 2005, according to DataQuick. In Miami, 21 such sales of $2 million or more were recorded in the first quarter, up from 15 last year and close to the 23 that sold in that time five years earlier.

Of course, many markets including Greenwich, Conn. and parts of New Jersey are still ailing. Brokers say pricey homes in outlying suburbs are more likely to sit than sell. Miami-Dade County still has enough homes priced at $2 million or more to last 41 months at the current sales pace, though down from 116 months a year earlier, says Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realtors, a large local brokerage.

The rear of the San Francisco home.
san fran rear house

The recent stock market tumble could unravel the turnaround. Unlike the rest of the housing market, which is driven largely by employment trends, housing analysts say high-end buyers are much more sensitive to changes in the stock market, which for the first quarter was helping them feel even wealthier. “If the markets don’t recover soon, it will scare people” and hurt demand for high-end homes, says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

In the meantime, some high-end renovators are making quick sales. Koby Kempel bought a colonial in Brookline, a posh suburb of Boston, last year for $1.45 million. He raised the ceilings, rebuilt the interior, expanded the home by about 50% and added a heated garage. The six-bedroom home was listed by Mona Wiener of Hammond Residential on a Friday in early May and was under contract the next day for the asking price of nearly $3.5 million.

Back in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood, a four-bedroom home on Broadway, with a spa and views of the Golden Gate Bridge, was renovated by Gregory Malin. It went on the market in late January and sold two weeks later for $13.5 million, compared with the $14 million asking price. The listing agent, Val Steele of Sotheby’s International Realty, says the sale, at $2,146 per square foot, marked the first time a home in San Francisco topped $2,000 a square foot since early September 2008.

sandp chart

If You Don’t Buy a House Now, You’re Stupid or Broke

A recent article in Business Week caught my eye.  Please take a minute to read the following and let me know your thoughts.

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don’t want to move. Or maybe you’re a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don’t act soon, you will regret it. Here’s why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let’s look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren’t happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.
Interest Rate Lessons

And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We’ve since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.
Loan Costs

Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let’s put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is “more stable” and it’s safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you’re borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I’m trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

So… are you convinced?   What has to happen in order for you to take action right now?   Let me know what you think.

Credit Suisse – December Monthly Survey

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Check out the latest facts and trends from Credit Suisse regarding the Los Angeles/Orange County Real Estate Market… Does this sound familiar to you?

Los Angeles, CA – Attractive Affordability Continues
to Lure Buyers
(4,559 single-family permits in 2008, 21st largest market in the country)

Buyers still in the market following the tax credit extension. Buyer traffic remained
above agents’ expectations in November, as our buyer traffic index inched up to 59 from
57 in October (readings above 50 indicate traffic above expectations). Agents said there
was little change in traffic levels this month after the tax credit was extended early on, as
buyers continued to focus on the affordability created by low prices, low rates and the
credit. One agent noted, “The tax credit extension has put some people back in the market
who thought they couldn’t find what they wanted before. Most of the first-time buyers think
they should get a foreclosure or short sale for less than the asking price, but banks are
being firmer on prices.” Other agents said the extension of the credit also gave buyers
more confidence that they are getting in at or near the bottom of the market, especially as
inventory levels come down, although they do note buyers remain very value focused.
Lower inventories and solid demand lead to sequentially higher prices. Home prices
increased sequentially in November, as our home price index improved to 61 from 52 in
October (readings above 50 indicate higher prices over the past 30 days). Agents said
prices were helped by the strong demand trends, which led to a further drawdown in
inventories. Our home listings index improved to 84 in November from 71 in October, with
readings above 50 indicating lower inventory levels. We’re hopeful that these positive
trends can continue, but remain worried about the growing backlog of foreclosures that
have yet to hit the market.

Comments from real estate agents:
■ “There are too many cash buyers (investors) and real buyers are getting
frustrated.”
■ “Buyers are looking for bargains and trying to take advantage of the tax credit.”
KB Home, Standard Pacific and MDC have the most exposure. Approximately 3% of
sales for Hovnanian, KB Home and Standard Pacific come from L.A., the most among the
large builders.

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN BUYING A DISTRESSED PROPERTY

Being an Informed Buyer Will Reduce the Stress and Surprises of Your Home Search and Purchase

SEARCHING

1) Homes may be listed as Active, but they may have many offers or they may already be Sold.

2) Homes may be a Short Sale, even if it is not clearly identified.

3) Most home features may not be listed, or may not be correct.

4) The home may be in an Association, even if it is not disclosed; there may be Mello-Roos Tax, even if it is not disclosed; the home may be on leased land, even if not disclosed.

MAKING OFFERS

1) There may already be many other offers and the property may sell above the list price.

2) The listing Agent may have dozens of distressed listings in many areas, and they may know little about any particular home or area.

3) A Bank Owned Home may have an Asset Manager handling hundreds of homes, so a response could take from 1 day to 1 week or more.

4) A Short Sale Could take 2 to 5 months to get an approval, and up to 80% will never get approved. Any updates or responses could take weeks to months. After waiting months, the approved price returned by the bank could be much higher than the list price.

ACCEPTED OFFERS

1) Until it closes escrow, even with a signed, accepted offer, the bank or owner can decide not to sell and any money spent by the buyer for inspections, appraisals, etc will not be refunded.

2) The condition of the property is unknown to the owner and the agents. The buyer takes complete responsibility to pay for and conduct as many inspections that they desire, including but not limited to the physical condition, the association, permits, taxes, etc.

3) Most banks will put in their contracts that the home is sold ‘AS IS’, and they will refuse most repair requests that you make after inspection. Many will NOT even do Termite Repairs.

4) Most banks will put into their contracts that if the buyer closes late, the buyer will pay a daily fee for each day late; this could be from $50 to $250 a day or more.

5) The bank will insist on choosing the Title and Escrow Company, these may be slow, overworked and sometimes inexperienced people working on too many files at the same time.

THE ESCROW

1) The escrow experience for most buyers, agents & lenders may be the most frustrating part.

2) Things that normally take hours may take days.

3) Things that normally take days may take weeks.

4) The buyer, agent and lender can call escrow repeatedly, and things may not speed up.

5) The buyer, agent and lender can visit the escrow office, and things may not speed up.

6) The same information may often need to be given to escrow multiple times.

7) We may deal with many people at the escrow company, and they may not be sure of anything.

8) DO NOT plan on a specific closing date, no matter how efficient the lender and agent are, the escrow company may slow things down at every stage and the seller may have a final review.

9) At the end of this slow, frustrating escrow, they will still charge you the full regular escrow fee.

10) Upon Close you may only get 1 key, possibly not a Garage Door Opener, or mail box key & No association key for the pool, etc. You may need to buy keys and change locks.

Most of the escrows will eventually close, so try not to let the system that some banks have put into place to sell their properties dampen your excitement for your new home!

Jeffrey Simons ~ Broker Associate – Prudential California Realty 714.746.8103 Jeff@Jeffreysimons.com

More good news for consumers… Tax Credit extended!

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Realegal®

More good news for consumers, our members, and the housing market recovery. Following the Senate’s favorable vote yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives just voted 403 to 12 to extend the home buyer tax credit, expanding the parameters to include existing homeowners and not just first-time buyers. As you may know, C.A.R. and our partners at NAR have worked for months urging Congress and the Senate to extend and expand this crucial piece of legislation. We expect President Obama to sign the legislation in short order.

As it now stands, the federal tax credit will be extended through April 30, 2010, with a 60-day extension if a binding contract is in place prior to the deadline. First-time home buyers will continue to be eligible for a tax credit of up to $8,000, while existing homeowners will be eligible for a reduced credit of up to $6,500. To qualify for the $6,500 credit, existing homeowners must have lived in their current residences for at least five years. The bill also increases the qualifying income limits from $75,000 for single tax filers and $150,000 for joint filers to $125,000 and $225,000, respectively. The purchase price of the home is capped at $800,000 in both instances.

Under additional provisions included in the bill, taxpayers can claim the credit on purchases completed in 2010 on their 2009 income tax returns. The legislation maintains the provision that home buyers do not have to repay the credit provided the home remains their primary residence for 36 months after purchase, and waives this requirement for active duty military personnel who move due to a military order.

Nationwide, more than 1.4 million first-time home buyers were given the opportunity to become homeowners as a result of the Federal Tax Credit for First-time Home Buyers. We expect that number to increase dramatically in the months ahead with this new legislation in place. Thank you to our members who called, wrote, and e-mailed their congressional representatives and voiced their support for the home buyer tax credit. Your voices were heard – today’s vote is a direct result of OUR actions and involvement.

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®