CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® releases its California Housing Market Forecast for 2011:
Small increases projected in both home sales and median home price

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 4) – A weaker-than-expected economic recovery will result in a projected decline in California home sales for 2010, although home sales are expected to edge up slightly in 2011, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) “2011 California Housing Market Forecast” released today.

California home sales for 2010 are forecast to decline 10 percent from the 2009 sales figure of 546,500 homes sold. Sales in 2011 are projected to increase a lackluster 2 percent to 502,000 units compared with 492,000 units (projected) in 2010. After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast.

“California’s housing market will see small increases in both home sales and the median price in 2011 as the housing market and general economy struggle to find their sea legs,” said C.A.R. President Steve Goddard. “The minor improvement in the housing market next year will be driven by the slow pace of recovery in the economy and modest job growth. Distressed properties will figure prominently in the market next year, but we also expect to see discretionary sellers play a larger role,” he said.

“As the U.S. economy continues its tepid recovery, we’ll see some improvement in California’s economy,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come and an improvement in unemployment figures,” she said.

“The situation in the California housing market continues to be a tale of two housing markets,” said Goddard. The segment of the market under $500,000 has been driven by distressed sales, while higher-priced areas of the state have been constrained by restricted financing options, and increasingly have experienced an increase in the number of distressed properties. Sales in the low end have been constrained by a lack of inventory, putting upward pressure on prices. Multiple offers on lower-end homes have been very common, according to Goddard.

“A lean supply of available homes for sale will drive prices up at the low end, but larger inventories and limited, less attractive financing will cause continued softness at the high end,” said Appleton-Young. “There’s some indication that lenders will accelerate the number of foreclosures coming on market, further adding to the housing supply, but we do not anticipate that lenders will flood the market with distressed properties,” she said.

“The wild cards for 2011 include federal housing policies, actions of underwater homeowners, and the strength of the economic recovery,” said Appleton-Young. “What is certain is that favorable home prices and historically low interest rates will continue to make owning a home in California attractive for those who are in a position to buy,” she said.

An expanded forecast presentation will be presented Wednesday afternoon during the CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2010 (http://expo.car.org/), running from Oct. 5-7 at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, Calif. The trade show attracts nearly 7,000 attendees and is the largest state real estate trade show in the nation.

Don’t miss “2010 Econ Panel: The Future of Real Estate Finance and Your Market in 2011” during CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2010. C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young will lead a panel of renowned economists as the experts share their predictions on what the changing economy means for real estate. Panelists include: Richard Green, professor and director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate; John Karevoll, housing analyst at Dataquick Information Systems; and Michael LaCour-Little, professor and director of the California State University, Fullerton Real Estate and Land Use Institute. The panel is scheduled to be held Thursday, Oct. 7, from 2 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. at the Anaheim Convention Center.

2011 FORECAST FACT SHEET

The C.A.R. Expo is this week at Anaheim Convention Center… Make sure you check out REBarCamp and Tech Tuesday! I’m sure these will be well worth your time! On a side note… what do you think as far as the projections and information presented above? I would love to hear your thoughts… simply send me a comment below.

By JULIET CHUNG and JAMES R. HAGERTY at the WSJ

For years, Jennifer Metz and her husband John yearned for a bigger home in San Francisco. Three months ago, the couple started looking, figuring that in this shaky economy, their $3 million budget should provide them a pick of attractive homes and accommodating sellers.
Luxury Going Fast

Kimberly Hallen/Boston Virtual Imaging – A Cambridge, Massachusetts home

They were wrong. Hours after seeing a 5,000-square-foot fixer-upper in Presidio Heights with an asking price around $2.7 million, the Metzes put in a bid—and lost. Soon after, they made another offer on a four-bedroom in Russian Hill. Their bid was rejected.

Last week, the Metzes rushed over to a large, dilapidated home in Pacific Heights that needed a lot of work but was asking the (relatively) low price of $2.25 million. The Metzes put in their over-ask bid the next day, but lost that one too: There were nine offers; the winning bid was $2.56 million.

“It’s frustrating,” says Ms. Metz, a 44-year-old stay-at-home mom whose husband works in finance. “You think you put in a good offer but, no.”

After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing. Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation’s most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers. Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic.

Sotheby’s

$2,146-per-square-foot is what a buyer paid for this elaborately redone San Francisco home that has a vanishing wall.

That sales are up from last year shouldn’t come as a big surprise. The shock of the financial panic in the fall of 2008 left many potential buyers too nervous to bid, and those who were willing to wade in found it hard to get financing. But a study for The Wall Street Journal by MDA DataQuick, a real-estate data provider, found that in some areas of the country, sales of homes over $2 million in the first quarter were actually on par with the levels of 2005, the peak year for existing-home sales volume nationwide.

In San Francisco, 49 homes sold for $2 million or more in this year’s first quarter, according to the study, compared to 47 in 2005. In Manhattan, there were 402 sales of $2 million or more in the latest quarter, compared with 311 in the first quarter of 2005, according to the appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. Other areas with strong rebounds included New York’s Hamptons, Menlo Park, Calif., and Beverly Hills.

Even a couple of troubled housing markets experienced a strong uptick. In Las Vegas, there were 21 such sales in the first quarter, up from 15 in the first quarter of 2005, according to DataQuick. In Miami, 21 such sales of $2 million or more were recorded in the first quarter, up from 15 last year and close to the 23 that sold in that time five years earlier.

Of course, many markets including Greenwich, Conn. and parts of New Jersey are still ailing. Brokers say pricey homes in outlying suburbs are more likely to sit than sell. Miami-Dade County still has enough homes priced at $2 million or more to last 41 months at the current sales pace, though down from 116 months a year earlier, says Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realtors, a large local brokerage.

The rear of the San Francisco home.

The recent stock market tumble could unravel the turnaround. Unlike the rest of the housing market, which is driven largely by employment trends, housing analysts say high-end buyers are much more sensitive to changes in the stock market, which for the first quarter was helping them feel even wealthier. “If the markets don’t recover soon, it will scare people” and hurt demand for high-end homes, says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

In the meantime, some high-end renovators are making quick sales. Koby Kempel bought a colonial in Brookline, a posh suburb of Boston, last year for $1.45 million. He raised the ceilings, rebuilt the interior, expanded the home by about 50% and added a heated garage. The six-bedroom home was listed by Mona Wiener of Hammond Residential on a Friday in early May and was under contract the next day for the asking price of nearly $3.5 million.

Back in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood, a four-bedroom home on Broadway, with a spa and views of the Golden Gate Bridge, was renovated by Gregory Malin. It went on the market in late January and sold two weeks later for $13.5 million, compared with the $14 million asking price. The listing agent, Val Steele of Sotheby’s International Realty, says the sale, at $2,146 per square foot, marked the first time a home in San Francisco topped $2,000 a square foot since early September 2008.

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don’t want to move. Or maybe you’re a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don’t act soon, you will regret it. Here’s why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let’s look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren’t happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.
Interest Rate Lessons

And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We’ve since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.
Loan Costs

Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let’s put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is “more stable” and it’s safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you’re borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I’m trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

So… are you convinced?   What has to happen in order for you to take action right now?   Let me know what you think.

More good news for consumers, our members, and the housing market recovery. Following the Senate’s favorable vote yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives just voted 403 to 12 to extend the home buyer tax credit, expanding the parameters to include existing homeowners and not just first-time buyers. As you may know, C.A.R. and our partners at NAR have worked for months urging Congress and the Senate to extend and expand this crucial piece of legislation. We expect President Obama to sign the legislation in short order.

As it now stands, the federal tax credit will be extended through April 30, 2010, with a 60-day extension if a binding contract is in place prior to the deadline. First-time home buyers will continue to be eligible for a tax credit of up to $8,000, while existing homeowners will be eligible for a reduced credit of up to $6,500. To qualify for the $6,500 credit, existing homeowners must have lived in their current residences for at least five years. The bill also increases the qualifying income limits from $75,000 for single tax filers and $150,000 for joint filers to $125,000 and $225,000, respectively. The purchase price of the home is capped at $800,000 in both instances.

Under additional provisions included in the bill, taxpayers can claim the credit on purchases completed in 2010 on their 2009 income tax returns. The legislation maintains the provision that home buyers do not have to repay the credit provided the home remains their primary residence for 36 months after purchase, and waives this requirement for active duty military personnel who move due to a military order.

Nationwide, more than 1.4 million first-time home buyers were given the opportunity to become homeowners as a result of the Federal Tax Credit for First-time Home Buyers. We expect that number to increase dramatically in the months ahead with this new legislation in place. Thank you to our members who called, wrote, and e-mailed their congressional representatives and voiced their support for the home buyer tax credit. Your voices were heard – today’s vote is a direct result of OUR actions and involvement.

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Senate Bill 306, signed into law this September, changes some of the rules for California real estate short sales . Much of the excitement around this legislation is a revision to Civil Code section 2943 that provides, when an owner/borrower submits to the lender a “short sale request,” the lender is required to accept or decline it within 21 days.

This excitement overlooks what is required by the statute to trigger the lender’s duty to respond quickly. The statute describes a short sale request as a written request that includes;

A. A copy of an existing contract to purchase the property for an amount certain;

B. A copy of the short-pay agreement in the possession of the entitled person.

C. Information related to the release of any other liens on the property, if
any. Item B, the “short pay agreement,” is further defined as an agreement in writing in which the beneficiary agrees to release its lien on a property in return for payment of an amount less than the secured obligation.

It appears that the procedure is as follows:

1. The prospective seller must first have in hand an agreement with the lender
agreeing, in advance, to a short sale. But there is no deadline for the lender to
provide the agreement, nor discussion of whether the agreement specifies how much the lender will accept. On its face, the statute allows the lender to provide the agreement, but not accept a short sale if it is for less that one dollar below the total owed.

2. The owner/borrower the gets a bona fide purchase offer, and makes a short-pay request.

3. The lender then has 21 days to respond, setting forth whether they accept
the existing offer, or specifying the price and terms they would agree to a short sale.

I’m not sure how this will really benefit the consumer as the only adverse effect to the lender is a minimal fine, and there are challenges as to when the time frames truly begin… If you ever worked with a short sale, they don’t always receive everything you send them, packages get lost or placed in the wrong department, etc… however I’m hopeful that this is a step in the right direction…  your thoughts?

]]> http://www.ocrealestateconsultant.com/short-sale-updates/changes-coming-senate-bill-306/feed/ 0 http://www.ocrealestateconsultant.com/short-sale-updates/loan-modification-attorneys-under-investigation/ http://www.ocrealestateconsultant.com/short-sale-updates/loan-modification-attorneys-under-investigation/#comments Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:09:18 +0000 Jeffrey Simons http://www.ocrealestateconsultant.com/?p=360 Brought to you by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

LOAN MODIFICATION ATTORNEYS UNDER INVESTIGATION The State Bar of California has recently launched numerous investigations against attorneys for misconduct related to loan modifications. In a rare move, the State Bar has released the names of 16 attorneys under investigation, by opting to waive investigation confidentiality in favor of public protection. These attorneys have allegedly taken fees for promised services, but failed to perform those services or even communicate with their clients who face the possible loss of their homes. Their non-attorney staff may also be under investigation for unlawfully practicing law.

Not all attorneys engaged in loan modifications are unscrupulous. However, this announcement from the State Bar serves as a good reminder for REALTORS® and their clients to be careful when dealing with attorneys and others for loan modifications. Scam artists may intentionally associate or affiliate themselves with attorneys in an attempt to lend credence to their fraudulent schemes.

The list of attorneys currently under investigation is available at http://calbar.ca.gov/state/calbar/calbar_generic.jsp?cid=10144&n=96395. C.A.R. provides REALTORS

I’m not going to tell you that I have all the answers and that I know how to get through every situaltion… What I believe would help, would be for entire industry to CHANGE…

Imagine if we all worked together to reach the same results… how great would that feel? You are not alone and don’t need to do this by yourself. I would like to suggest that any agent working on a short sale that hasn’t already taking an advanced training course through your local board, the short sale specialist (SSS), the short sale matrix (SSM), or the Certified Distressed Property Experts (CDPE) please do so…

At the very least… please consider working together with the community to reach a common goal, whether it be getting through the sale faster, helping your seller through a difficult time, working to get the lender through this sale, minimize their loss, and even for your own selfish benefit to get paid sooner… wouldn’t that be nice?

Are you looking for help? Please visit www.CDPE.com now and make a difference for you, your community and your clients!!!

My answer: This market is constantly changing and there is continued change in our economy, the stock market, interest rates, the legislation, the short sale and foreclosure markets and much more.  I personally receive upwards of 3-5 emails a day from different lenders and brokers with conflicting information and misnomers.  There is no doubt that there are changes in every facet of this industry yet there is still a ton of activity in today’s real estate market!

Now… I’m not going to tell you that, I have all the right answers.  I would like to suggest that if you have a question, a problem or an issue that you need help with, let me know.  My diligent team of professionals are here to help me, help you.

My coach “Joe Stumpf” has said that confusion is a convenient place to go when you don’t want to change.  If you don’t want to change… that’s ok!  However, if you are tired of sitting on the fence and you are ready to find out if this market is right for you… give me a call or send me an email right now, and let’s see if we can craft a specific, strategic process to help you get from where you are now, to where you want to be!

Thank you for taking to time to follow this feed, take care and I will look forward to speaking with you soon.

Your Friend In The Real Estate Business…

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — There’s a nice windfall for some homebuyers in the economic stimulus bill awaiting President Obama’s signature on Tuesday. First-time buyers can claim a credit worth $8,000 – or 10% of the home’s value, whichever is less – on their 2008 or 2009 taxes.

A big plus is that the credit is refundable, meaning tax filers see a refund of the full $8,000 even if their total tax bill – the amount of witholding they paid during the year plus anything extra they had to pony up when they filed their returns – was less than that amount. But there has been a lot of confusion over this provision. Adam Billings of Knoxville, Tenn. wrote to CNNMoney.com asking:

“I will qualify as a first-time home buyer, and I am currently set to get a small tax refund for 2008. Does that mean if I purchased now that I would get an extra $8,000 added on top of my current refund?”

The short answer? Yes, Billings would get back the $8,000 plus what he’d overpaid. The long answer? It depends. Here are three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Your final tax liability is normally $6,000. You’ve had taxes withheld from every paycheck and at the end of the year you’ve paid Uncle Sam $6,000. Since you’ve already paid him all you owe, you get the entire $8,000 tax credit as a refund check.

Scenario 2: Your final tax liability is $6,000, but you’ve overpaid by $1,000 through your payroll witholding. Normally you would get a $1,000 refund check. In this scenario, you get $9,000, the $8,000 credit plus the $1,000 you overpaid.

Scenario 3: Your final tax liability is $6,000, but you’ve underpaid through your payroll witholding by $1,000. Normally, you would have to write the IRS a $1,000 check. This time, the first $1,000 of the tax credit pays your bill, and you get the remaining $7,000 as a refund.

To qualify for the credit, the purchase must be made between Jan. 1, 2009 and Nov. 30, 2009. Buyers may not have owned a home for the past three years to qualify as “first time” buyer. They must also live in the house for at least three years, or they will be obligated to pay back the credit.

Additionally, there are income restrictions: To qualify, buyers must make less than $75,000 for singles or $150,000 for couples. (Higher-income buyers may receive a partial credit.)

Applying for the credit will be easy – or at least as easy as doing your income taxes. Just claim it on your return. No other forms or papers have to be filed. Taxpayers who have already completed their returns can file amended returns for 2008 to claim the credit.

The housing industry is somewhat pleased with the result because the stimulus plan improves on the current $7,500 tax credit, which was passed in July and was more of a low-interest loan than an actual credit. But the industry was also disappointed that Congress did not go even further and adopt the Senate’s proposal of a $15,000 non-refundable credit for all homebuyers.

“[The Senate version] would have done a lot more to turn around the housing market,” said Bernard Markstein, an economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB). “We have a lot of reports of people who would be coming off the fence because of it.”

Even so, the $8,000 credit will bring an additional 300,000 new homebuyers into the market, according to estimates by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

The credit could also create a domino effect, he said, because each first-time homebuyer sale will lead to two more trade-up transactions down the line. “I think there are many homeowners who would be trading-up but they have had no buyers for their own homes,” Yun said.

Who won’t benefit, according to Mark Goldman, a real estate lecturer at San Diego State University, are those first-time homebuyers struggling to come up with down payments. The credit does not help get them over that hurdle – they still have to close the sale before claiming the bonus.

One state, Missouri, is trying to get around that problem by creating a short-term loan on the tax credit of up to $6,750. The state would loan borrowers the money so they could use it at closing as part of the downpayment. Then, when the buyers receive their tax credit from the IRS, they pay back the state. Other states may follow with similar programs, according to NAHB’s Dietz.

Many may look at the tax credit as a discount on the home price, according to Yun. A $100,000 purchase effectively becomes a $92,000 one. That can reassure buyers apprehensive about purchasing and then watching prices continue falling, he added.

And it provides a nice nest egg for the often-difficult early years of homeownership, when unexpected repairs and expenses often crop up. Recipients could also use the money to buy new stuff for their home – a lawnmower, a rug, a sofa – and, in that way, help stimulate the economy.

CORRECTED: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated how much taxpayers who were owed a refund would receive under the credit.

Imagine looking back 7, 12 or even 15 years from now… living in your home, feeling that sense of security, and comfort, having that safe place to return every day.  Now imagine how good you will feel knowing that you made a good decision to purchase when so many others couldn’t take advantage of what you could!  All of the challenges in the media that are present today won’t even be a factor 10, 12, or even 15 years from now

Your home is where you find comfort, your sense of security and safety!  It allows you tax benefits, stability, freedom, and even a sense of pride of ownership.  If you are looking to stay in your home for more than 7 years, I believe it still a good idea to remain active. I’d love to hear your thoughts!