Lenders’ data mining goes deep

I love the data… I dislike that big brother has that much control and knows more about me than my family and friends… read on and let me know your thoughts.

Mortgage makers are going beyond tax returns and bank statements to determine whether you’re a good risk. They’re checking such things as where you have pizza delivered and where you shop online.

Reporting from Washington — That pizza you had delivered the other night could mean the difference between whether you are approved for a mortgage or rejected.

There’s a big stretch between making a house payment and paying for a pizza. But it’s not what you pay for carryout that matters, at least not in the eyes of lenders. It’s where the food was delivered.

Ordering takeout proves that you live where you say you do, and that helps lenders uncover the crook who claims to live in the property he is trying to refinance when he really lives hundreds of miles away. Or expose the 35-year-old who says he has a $1,200-a-month apartment when he really lives rent-free with Mom and Dad.

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When you order food online, you become part of a vast database that lenders might tap to help them determine whether you are a good risk. Moreover, all sorts of these data reservoirs exist, and none of them is off-limits to lenders who are coming off the worst financial debacle since the Great Depression.

“If the data is available and it can be obtained legally, I’m going to test it,” says Alex Santos, president of Digital Risk, an Orlando, Fla., analytics firm that works with lenders and investors to build better underwriting mousetraps. “If it is inexpensive and makes my credit model better, I’m going to use it.”

Digital Risk is just one of numerous risk-management companies that are continuously probing for ways to help clients quantify their risk, prevent fraud and otherwise ensure the quality of their loans. And they’re going to extraordinary lengths to do so.

For example, they might peek into your online-buying habits. After all, the reasoning goes, someone who buys his shirts from a Brooks Brothers catalog may have more disposable income than someone who shops at JCPenney.

“At least that’s a theory we can test,” Santos says. “We’re looking for any type of data source that you can plug into a computer. It takes only a month of trial and error to determine whether the information can help [determine credit risk] or not. We have a hypothesis, push a button, and the computer tells us whether the data is predictive or not.”

This sort of data mining goes way beyond your credit score, that financial snapshot that measures your ability and willingness to repay your debt. And, Santos says, “there’s a tremendous amount of this kind of analytics going on right now.”

Lenders are still checking credit histories, not just when you apply for a mortgage but also a second time a day or two before the loan closes. But your credit score — known as a FICO score for the name of the company that created the scoring formula — is now considered “too broad.” Consequently, it has moved down in the hierarchy of tests that lenders are using to make certain that someone isn’t hoodwinking them.

First and foremost, lenders are pulling copies of your tax returns directly from Uncle Sam.

Don’t be alarmed. You give the lender permission to do that when you sign Form 4506-T. The idea here is to make sure that you haven’t altered the copy of your last two years’ tax returns that you provided when you signed your loan application. Lenders want to know if you might have exaggerated how much you earned.

Form 4506-T isn’t new. But a few years ago, at the height of the housing-market bonanza when home loans were easy to come by, many lenders failed to use it. Now practically everyone is going straight to the federal tax collector to compare the returns you provided with those on file with the IRS.

Lenders also are going to great lengths to verify employment and assets. Not only are they calling the name and work number you provided on your application, but they also are seeking confirmation in writing from your employer about what you earn, your position and how long you’ve worked there.

It’s the same for your bank accounts. Rather than being satisfied solely with the copies of the bank statements you provided, lenders are going directly to your bank to secure another set of those statements to make sure the numbers line up.

Lenders are no longer taking the appraiser’s word for how much the property you want to buy or refinance is worth, either. Now, they are employing automated valuation models as a second line of defense to be certain the appraiser’s estimate is on the money.

Next in the line of defenses is your credit score, but not just the score pulled when you applied for the loan. Now, they are pulling a second score shortly before closing to make sure that you haven’t taken out a car loan, bought a houseful of furniture on credit or done something else that might change your ability to make your house payments.

Lenders also are searching for other undisclosed liabilities by running your Social Security number through a huge database known as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.

Since 1997, more than 63 million mortgages have been registered on the MERS tracking system, each with a distinct 18-digit identification number. So, if you have another mortgage that you “forgot” to tell your lender about, this check will probably find it.

Now, too, the most cautious lenders are digging into noncredit proprietary databases such as those maintained by Papa John’s or Victoria’s Secret. And nothing is out of the realm of possibility. The “only boundary,” says Digital Risk’s Santos, is whether information can be accessed legally.

As long as it does not distinguish between race, religion, age and other “protected” classes, anything is fair game.

Distributed by United Feature Syndicate.
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in June, Still Near Record Highs

By Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal – July 26th

After rising in May, the rate of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures fell in June.

Some 9.39% of all loans were 30 days or more past due, down from 9.54% in May, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan data. An additional 3.69% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 3.72% in May and the record high of 3.81% in March.

The ratio of loans that were seriously delinquent, or 90 days or more past due, to the amount of loans in foreclosure still shows a sizeable overhang but fell for the second straight month, to levels last seen last September. The fact that there are still more than double the number of delinquent loans than loans in foreclosure suggests that the glut of bank-owned properties will continue to weigh on housing markets for many months to come.

Foreclosure starts increased sharply during the month on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as more government loan-modification trials failed to convert to permanent modifications. On Friday, Freddie said that its share of seriously delinquent loans fell for the fourth straight month, to 3.96% in June.

Separately, the S&P/Experian index of consumer credit defaults showed that that mortgage defaults were down by 5% in June from May, and down by 45% from one year ago. Second mortgage defaults were flat from one month earlier.

Data from Equifax and Moody’s Economy.com showed that mortgage delinquencies had the largest increase in San Diego; Sacramento, Calif.; and Charlotte, N.C. during the second quarter.

For the year ended in June, delinquencies were up most sharply in Phoenix, Seattle, and Charlotte, while St. Louis, Washington, and Denver posted the largest declines.

While I think that this is a great article, I believe personally that his numbers fall short. There are far more than 9.39% of all mortgages that are currently delinquent. I’m curious… what are your thoughts about the state of affairs and where the market is headed?

Troubled homeowners find help outside Obama program

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Great article explaining the continued challenges with Loan Modifications and our current state of affairs.

More mortgages were permanently modified in May under the government program, but more modifications were canceled as well. Some of those borrowers worked out alternative terms with private lenders.

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A distressed home awaits a buyer in Davie, Fla. Mortgage servicers have been pressured by the government to make more loan modifications permanent. (J Pat Carter, Associated Press / May 12, 2010)
By Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Washington —

More borrowers dropped out of the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention program last month than were added, but many of those homeowners found private help from their mortgage companies, according to data released Monday.

The number of mortgages with permanently reduced payments under the Home Affordable Modification Program increased 15% in May to 340,459. The pace of new temporary three-month modifications eased in May, with an increase of just 2.5% to 1,244,184.

But cancellations of mortgage modifications continued to grow. Canceled trial modifications rose 55% in May from April. More than a third of all trial modifications started since the program began last year — 429,696 — now have been canceled.

Cancellations of permanent modifications also were up sharply, rising 70% to 6,357 in May from April.

But overall, homeowners with permanently reduced mortgage payments have fared better in the program. The cancellations amount to just 1.8% of all the permanent modifications offered since the program began last year.

The administration’s report said that at the eight largest mortgage servicers, including Bank of America, CitiMortgage and JPMorgan Chase, nearly half of homeowners whose temporary government modifications were cancelled received an alternative modification.

Of the 194,056 total cancellations for those servicers under the Obama administration’s plan, just 7% resulted in foreclosure actions. An additional 2% resulted in a short sale.

The Los Angeles-Orange County area continued to account for the most active trial and permanent modifications under the administration program, with 52,119, or 6.4% of the national total. The New York City area was second with 6.1%. The Inland Empire ranked fourth with 5%.

The $75-billion Home Affordable Modification Program offers mortgage servicers cash incentives to reduce mortgage holders’ payments. The goal is to modify the mortgages for 3 million to 4 million people by the end of 2012. The median payment reduction in permanent modifications has been about $500 a month.

But the program has been criticized for not helping enough homeowners and for slow participation and bureaucratic runarounds by major mortgage servicers.

Administration officials increased pressure on mortgage servicers in December to make more of the modifications permanent.

As part of that process, the administration reviewed cases in which some servicers denied mortgage modifications. Officials agreed with most of the decisions, but in 3.9% of the cases, reviewers disagreed with the servicers’ decisions and ordered the firms to hold off on foreclosure action until the cases were reevaluated.

jim.puzzanghera@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

Luxury Sales Bounce Back…

san fran house

An interesting article to say the least… I still believe that this market has some corrections left to address. Your thoughts?

By JULIET CHUNG and JAMES R. HAGERTY at the WSJ

For years, Jennifer Metz and her husband John yearned for a bigger home in San Francisco. Three months ago, the couple started looking, figuring that in this shaky economy, their $3 million budget should provide them a pick of attractive homes and accommodating sellers.
Luxury Going Fast

massachechets house

Kimberly Hallen/Boston Virtual Imaging – A Cambridge, Massachusetts home

They were wrong. Hours after seeing a 5,000-square-foot fixer-upper in Presidio Heights with an asking price around $2.7 million, the Metzes put in a bid—and lost. Soon after, they made another offer on a four-bedroom in Russian Hill. Their bid was rejected.

Last week, the Metzes rushed over to a large, dilapidated home in Pacific Heights that needed a lot of work but was asking the (relatively) low price of $2.25 million. The Metzes put in their over-ask bid the next day, but lost that one too: There were nine offers; the winning bid was $2.56 million.

“It’s frustrating,” says Ms. Metz, a 44-year-old stay-at-home mom whose husband works in finance. “You think you put in a good offer but, no.”

After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing. Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation’s most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers. Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic.

san fran house
Sotheby’s

$2,146-per-square-foot is what a buyer paid for this elaborately redone San Francisco home that has a vanishing wall.

That sales are up from last year shouldn’t come as a big surprise. The shock of the financial panic in the fall of 2008 left many potential buyers too nervous to bid, and those who were willing to wade in found it hard to get financing. But a study for The Wall Street Journal by MDA DataQuick, a real-estate data provider, found that in some areas of the country, sales of homes over $2 million in the first quarter were actually on par with the levels of 2005, the peak year for existing-home sales volume nationwide.

In San Francisco, 49 homes sold for $2 million or more in this year’s first quarter, according to the study, compared to 47 in 2005. In Manhattan, there were 402 sales of $2 million or more in the latest quarter, compared with 311 in the first quarter of 2005, according to the appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. Other areas with strong rebounds included New York’s Hamptons, Menlo Park, Calif., and Beverly Hills.

Even a couple of troubled housing markets experienced a strong uptick. In Las Vegas, there were 21 such sales in the first quarter, up from 15 in the first quarter of 2005, according to DataQuick. In Miami, 21 such sales of $2 million or more were recorded in the first quarter, up from 15 last year and close to the 23 that sold in that time five years earlier.

Of course, many markets including Greenwich, Conn. and parts of New Jersey are still ailing. Brokers say pricey homes in outlying suburbs are more likely to sit than sell. Miami-Dade County still has enough homes priced at $2 million or more to last 41 months at the current sales pace, though down from 116 months a year earlier, says Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realtors, a large local brokerage.

The rear of the San Francisco home.
san fran rear house

The recent stock market tumble could unravel the turnaround. Unlike the rest of the housing market, which is driven largely by employment trends, housing analysts say high-end buyers are much more sensitive to changes in the stock market, which for the first quarter was helping them feel even wealthier. “If the markets don’t recover soon, it will scare people” and hurt demand for high-end homes, says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

In the meantime, some high-end renovators are making quick sales. Koby Kempel bought a colonial in Brookline, a posh suburb of Boston, last year for $1.45 million. He raised the ceilings, rebuilt the interior, expanded the home by about 50% and added a heated garage. The six-bedroom home was listed by Mona Wiener of Hammond Residential on a Friday in early May and was under contract the next day for the asking price of nearly $3.5 million.

Back in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood, a four-bedroom home on Broadway, with a spa and views of the Golden Gate Bridge, was renovated by Gregory Malin. It went on the market in late January and sold two weeks later for $13.5 million, compared with the $14 million asking price. The listing agent, Val Steele of Sotheby’s International Realty, says the sale, at $2,146 per square foot, marked the first time a home in San Francisco topped $2,000 a square foot since early September 2008.

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Loan-modification dropouts rise -

Great article just published on Monday, May 17, 2010

By ALAN ZIBEL
The Associated Press

The number of homeowners dropping out of the Obama administration’s main mortgage assistance plan is growing, and is now almost equal to the number who have received permanent relief.

The Treasury Department’s report Monday was the latest evidence of problems in the administration’s $75 billion program. While officials insist the program is helping the housing market turn around, critics say it is merely delaying an inevitable surge in foreclosures.

More than 299,000 homeowners had received permanent loan modifications as of last month, Treasury said. That’s about 25 percent of the 1.2 million who started the program since its March 2009 launch. They are paying, on average, $516 less each month.

However, the number of people who started the process but failed to get their mortgages permanently modified rose dramatically in April.

To complete the program, borrowers must make at least three payments on time. About 277,000 homeowners, or 23 percent of those enrolled, have dropped out during this trial phase. That’s up from about 155,000 a month earlier, or a 79 percent increase.

Many borrowers are still stuck in limbo, unable to complete the process and caught up in an often-bewildering bureaucracy.

“These mortgage companies have to get it together,” said Henrietta Thompson, housing coordinator with United Family Services in Charlotte, N.C. “We’re not getting anything done.”

Treasury officials acknowledge that long delays have been a problem.

“Homeowners are waiting. We want them to get answers as rapidly as possible,” said Herbert Allison, an assistant Treasury secretary.

After a one-year struggle with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Giselle Embry, 56, of Escondido, was finally able to get a loan modification through the program.

“They kept calling me and asking me to send the same things,” she said. “I felt like they just wanted to run me around until I got so frustrated that I gave up.”

Embry fell behind on her mortgage. An illness forced her to go on disability for six months and her hours as a career adviser were shortened because of state budget cuts. Her new loan payment is $622 a month, more than half of her initial payment.

A Chase spokeswoman declined to comment on Embry’s case. She said the bank has hired 9,000 workers to handle foreclosure cases, opened 51 centers around the country where borrowers can meet with bank officials and held foreclosure prevention events around the country.

The program is designed to lower borrowers’ monthly payments by reducing mortgage rates to as low as 2 percent for five years and extending loan terms to as long as 40 years.

There have been problems from the start. One of the big ones: Initially, many of the participating banks allowed borrowers to state their income verbally and provide proof of their income later. That jammed up the system as many borrowers didn’t provide a complete set of documents, and some complained that their information was lost.

The mortgage companies that required homeowners to provide proof of their incomes have had a much better track record. HomEq Servicing Inc. and Ocwen Financial Corp. were able to convert more than 80 percent of their participating borrowers to permanent status, according to the Treasury Department.

By contrast, the four largest banks in the program have been far less successful. Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. have successfully processed about 25 percent of their applications. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. have been able to convert 22 percent and 21 percent, respectively, of their applicants to permanent status.

Treasury officials have directed lenders to shift to a new system. Starting with loan modifications that go into effect June 1, they are required to collect two recent pay stubs at the start of the process.

Housing analysts are also watching the number of borrowers who drop out after completing the program.

If You Don’t Buy a House Now, You’re Stupid or Broke

A recent article in Business Week caught my eye.  Please take a minute to read the following and let me know your thoughts.

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don’t want to move. Or maybe you’re a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don’t act soon, you will regret it. Here’s why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let’s look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren’t happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.
Interest Rate Lessons

And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We’ve since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.
Loan Costs

Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let’s put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is “more stable” and it’s safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you’re borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I’m trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

So… are you convinced?   What has to happen in order for you to take action right now?   Let me know what you think.