Lenders’ data mining goes deep

I love the data… I dislike that big brother has that much control and knows more about me than my family and friends… read on and let me know your thoughts.

Mortgage makers are going beyond tax returns and bank statements to determine whether you’re a good risk. They’re checking such things as where you have pizza delivered and where you shop online.

Reporting from Washington — That pizza you had delivered the other night could mean the difference between whether you are approved for a mortgage or rejected.

There’s a big stretch between making a house payment and paying for a pizza. But it’s not what you pay for carryout that matters, at least not in the eyes of lenders. It’s where the food was delivered.

Ordering takeout proves that you live where you say you do, and that helps lenders uncover the crook who claims to live in the property he is trying to refinance when he really lives hundreds of miles away. Or expose the 35-year-old who says he has a $1,200-a-month apartment when he really lives rent-free with Mom and Dad.

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When you order food online, you become part of a vast database that lenders might tap to help them determine whether you are a good risk. Moreover, all sorts of these data reservoirs exist, and none of them is off-limits to lenders who are coming off the worst financial debacle since the Great Depression.

“If the data is available and it can be obtained legally, I’m going to test it,” says Alex Santos, president of Digital Risk, an Orlando, Fla., analytics firm that works with lenders and investors to build better underwriting mousetraps. “If it is inexpensive and makes my credit model better, I’m going to use it.”

Digital Risk is just one of numerous risk-management companies that are continuously probing for ways to help clients quantify their risk, prevent fraud and otherwise ensure the quality of their loans. And they’re going to extraordinary lengths to do so.

For example, they might peek into your online-buying habits. After all, the reasoning goes, someone who buys his shirts from a Brooks Brothers catalog may have more disposable income than someone who shops at JCPenney.

“At least that’s a theory we can test,” Santos says. “We’re looking for any type of data source that you can plug into a computer. It takes only a month of trial and error to determine whether the information can help [determine credit risk] or not. We have a hypothesis, push a button, and the computer tells us whether the data is predictive or not.”

This sort of data mining goes way beyond your credit score, that financial snapshot that measures your ability and willingness to repay your debt. And, Santos says, “there’s a tremendous amount of this kind of analytics going on right now.”

Lenders are still checking credit histories, not just when you apply for a mortgage but also a second time a day or two before the loan closes. But your credit score — known as a FICO score for the name of the company that created the scoring formula — is now considered “too broad.” Consequently, it has moved down in the hierarchy of tests that lenders are using to make certain that someone isn’t hoodwinking them.

First and foremost, lenders are pulling copies of your tax returns directly from Uncle Sam.

Don’t be alarmed. You give the lender permission to do that when you sign Form 4506-T. The idea here is to make sure that you haven’t altered the copy of your last two years’ tax returns that you provided when you signed your loan application. Lenders want to know if you might have exaggerated how much you earned.

Form 4506-T isn’t new. But a few years ago, at the height of the housing-market bonanza when home loans were easy to come by, many lenders failed to use it. Now practically everyone is going straight to the federal tax collector to compare the returns you provided with those on file with the IRS.

Lenders also are going to great lengths to verify employment and assets. Not only are they calling the name and work number you provided on your application, but they also are seeking confirmation in writing from your employer about what you earn, your position and how long you’ve worked there.

It’s the same for your bank accounts. Rather than being satisfied solely with the copies of the bank statements you provided, lenders are going directly to your bank to secure another set of those statements to make sure the numbers line up.

Lenders are no longer taking the appraiser’s word for how much the property you want to buy or refinance is worth, either. Now, they are employing automated valuation models as a second line of defense to be certain the appraiser’s estimate is on the money.

Next in the line of defenses is your credit score, but not just the score pulled when you applied for the loan. Now, they are pulling a second score shortly before closing to make sure that you haven’t taken out a car loan, bought a houseful of furniture on credit or done something else that might change your ability to make your house payments.

Lenders also are searching for other undisclosed liabilities by running your Social Security number through a huge database known as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems.

Since 1997, more than 63 million mortgages have been registered on the MERS tracking system, each with a distinct 18-digit identification number. So, if you have another mortgage that you “forgot” to tell your lender about, this check will probably find it.

Now, too, the most cautious lenders are digging into noncredit proprietary databases such as those maintained by Papa John’s or Victoria’s Secret. And nothing is out of the realm of possibility. The “only boundary,” says Digital Risk’s Santos, is whether information can be accessed legally.

As long as it does not distinguish between race, religion, age and other “protected” classes, anything is fair game.

Distributed by United Feature Syndicate.
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Luxury Sales Bounce Back…

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An interesting article to say the least… I still believe that this market has some corrections left to address. Your thoughts?

By JULIET CHUNG and JAMES R. HAGERTY at the WSJ

For years, Jennifer Metz and her husband John yearned for a bigger home in San Francisco. Three months ago, the couple started looking, figuring that in this shaky economy, their $3 million budget should provide them a pick of attractive homes and accommodating sellers.
Luxury Going Fast

massachechets house

Kimberly Hallen/Boston Virtual Imaging – A Cambridge, Massachusetts home

They were wrong. Hours after seeing a 5,000-square-foot fixer-upper in Presidio Heights with an asking price around $2.7 million, the Metzes put in a bid—and lost. Soon after, they made another offer on a four-bedroom in Russian Hill. Their bid was rejected.

Last week, the Metzes rushed over to a large, dilapidated home in Pacific Heights that needed a lot of work but was asking the (relatively) low price of $2.25 million. The Metzes put in their over-ask bid the next day, but lost that one too: There were nine offers; the winning bid was $2.56 million.

“It’s frustrating,” says Ms. Metz, a 44-year-old stay-at-home mom whose husband works in finance. “You think you put in a good offer but, no.”

After a near-disastrous 2009, the luxury market appears to be making a comeback, driven by growing buyer confidence, improved financing conditions and more-realistic seller pricing. Despite the housing downturn, attractively priced homes in some of the nation’s most coveted neighborhoods are selling, sometimes fast and sometimes with multiple offers. Nationwide, sales of homes selling for $2 million to $5 million in the first quarter totaled 2,461, up 32% from a year before, says CoreLogic.

san fran house
Sotheby’s

$2,146-per-square-foot is what a buyer paid for this elaborately redone San Francisco home that has a vanishing wall.

That sales are up from last year shouldn’t come as a big surprise. The shock of the financial panic in the fall of 2008 left many potential buyers too nervous to bid, and those who were willing to wade in found it hard to get financing. But a study for The Wall Street Journal by MDA DataQuick, a real-estate data provider, found that in some areas of the country, sales of homes over $2 million in the first quarter were actually on par with the levels of 2005, the peak year for existing-home sales volume nationwide.

In San Francisco, 49 homes sold for $2 million or more in this year’s first quarter, according to the study, compared to 47 in 2005. In Manhattan, there were 402 sales of $2 million or more in the latest quarter, compared with 311 in the first quarter of 2005, according to the appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. Other areas with strong rebounds included New York’s Hamptons, Menlo Park, Calif., and Beverly Hills.

Even a couple of troubled housing markets experienced a strong uptick. In Las Vegas, there were 21 such sales in the first quarter, up from 15 in the first quarter of 2005, according to DataQuick. In Miami, 21 such sales of $2 million or more were recorded in the first quarter, up from 15 last year and close to the 23 that sold in that time five years earlier.

Of course, many markets including Greenwich, Conn. and parts of New Jersey are still ailing. Brokers say pricey homes in outlying suburbs are more likely to sit than sell. Miami-Dade County still has enough homes priced at $2 million or more to last 41 months at the current sales pace, though down from 116 months a year earlier, says Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realtors, a large local brokerage.

The rear of the San Francisco home.
san fran rear house

The recent stock market tumble could unravel the turnaround. Unlike the rest of the housing market, which is driven largely by employment trends, housing analysts say high-end buyers are much more sensitive to changes in the stock market, which for the first quarter was helping them feel even wealthier. “If the markets don’t recover soon, it will scare people” and hurt demand for high-end homes, says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

In the meantime, some high-end renovators are making quick sales. Koby Kempel bought a colonial in Brookline, a posh suburb of Boston, last year for $1.45 million. He raised the ceilings, rebuilt the interior, expanded the home by about 50% and added a heated garage. The six-bedroom home was listed by Mona Wiener of Hammond Residential on a Friday in early May and was under contract the next day for the asking price of nearly $3.5 million.

Back in San Francisco’s Pacific Heights neighborhood, a four-bedroom home on Broadway, with a spa and views of the Golden Gate Bridge, was renovated by Gregory Malin. It went on the market in late January and sold two weeks later for $13.5 million, compared with the $14 million asking price. The listing agent, Val Steele of Sotheby’s International Realty, says the sale, at $2,146 per square foot, marked the first time a home in San Francisco topped $2,000 a square foot since early September 2008.

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Credit Suisse – December Monthly Survey

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Check out the latest facts and trends from Credit Suisse regarding the Los Angeles/Orange County Real Estate Market… Does this sound familiar to you?

Los Angeles, CA – Attractive Affordability Continues
to Lure Buyers
(4,559 single-family permits in 2008, 21st largest market in the country)

Buyers still in the market following the tax credit extension. Buyer traffic remained
above agents’ expectations in November, as our buyer traffic index inched up to 59 from
57 in October (readings above 50 indicate traffic above expectations). Agents said there
was little change in traffic levels this month after the tax credit was extended early on, as
buyers continued to focus on the affordability created by low prices, low rates and the
credit. One agent noted, “The tax credit extension has put some people back in the market
who thought they couldn’t find what they wanted before. Most of the first-time buyers think
they should get a foreclosure or short sale for less than the asking price, but banks are
being firmer on prices.” Other agents said the extension of the credit also gave buyers
more confidence that they are getting in at or near the bottom of the market, especially as
inventory levels come down, although they do note buyers remain very value focused.
Lower inventories and solid demand lead to sequentially higher prices. Home prices
increased sequentially in November, as our home price index improved to 61 from 52 in
October (readings above 50 indicate higher prices over the past 30 days). Agents said
prices were helped by the strong demand trends, which led to a further drawdown in
inventories. Our home listings index improved to 84 in November from 71 in October, with
readings above 50 indicating lower inventory levels. We’re hopeful that these positive
trends can continue, but remain worried about the growing backlog of foreclosures that
have yet to hit the market.

Comments from real estate agents:
■ “There are too many cash buyers (investors) and real buyers are getting
frustrated.”
■ “Buyers are looking for bargains and trying to take advantage of the tax credit.”
KB Home, Standard Pacific and MDC have the most exposure. Approximately 3% of
sales for Hovnanian, KB Home and Standard Pacific come from L.A., the most among the
large builders.

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN BUYING A DISTRESSED PROPERTY

Being an Informed Buyer Will Reduce the Stress and Surprises of Your Home Search and Purchase

SEARCHING

1) Homes may be listed as Active, but they may have many offers or they may already be Sold.

2) Homes may be a Short Sale, even if it is not clearly identified.

3) Most home features may not be listed, or may not be correct.

4) The home may be in an Association, even if it is not disclosed; there may be Mello-Roos Tax, even if it is not disclosed; the home may be on leased land, even if not disclosed.

MAKING OFFERS

1) There may already be many other offers and the property may sell above the list price.

2) The listing Agent may have dozens of distressed listings in many areas, and they may know little about any particular home or area.

3) A Bank Owned Home may have an Asset Manager handling hundreds of homes, so a response could take from 1 day to 1 week or more.

4) A Short Sale Could take 2 to 5 months to get an approval, and up to 80% will never get approved. Any updates or responses could take weeks to months. After waiting months, the approved price returned by the bank could be much higher than the list price.

ACCEPTED OFFERS

1) Until it closes escrow, even with a signed, accepted offer, the bank or owner can decide not to sell and any money spent by the buyer for inspections, appraisals, etc will not be refunded.

2) The condition of the property is unknown to the owner and the agents. The buyer takes complete responsibility to pay for and conduct as many inspections that they desire, including but not limited to the physical condition, the association, permits, taxes, etc.

3) Most banks will put in their contracts that the home is sold ‘AS IS’, and they will refuse most repair requests that you make after inspection. Many will NOT even do Termite Repairs.

4) Most banks will put into their contracts that if the buyer closes late, the buyer will pay a daily fee for each day late; this could be from $50 to $250 a day or more.

5) The bank will insist on choosing the Title and Escrow Company, these may be slow, overworked and sometimes inexperienced people working on too many files at the same time.

THE ESCROW

1) The escrow experience for most buyers, agents & lenders may be the most frustrating part.

2) Things that normally take hours may take days.

3) Things that normally take days may take weeks.

4) The buyer, agent and lender can call escrow repeatedly, and things may not speed up.

5) The buyer, agent and lender can visit the escrow office, and things may not speed up.

6) The same information may often need to be given to escrow multiple times.

7) We may deal with many people at the escrow company, and they may not be sure of anything.

8) DO NOT plan on a specific closing date, no matter how efficient the lender and agent are, the escrow company may slow things down at every stage and the seller may have a final review.

9) At the end of this slow, frustrating escrow, they will still charge you the full regular escrow fee.

10) Upon Close you may only get 1 key, possibly not a Garage Door Opener, or mail box key & No association key for the pool, etc. You may need to buy keys and change locks.

Most of the escrows will eventually close, so try not to let the system that some banks have put into place to sell their properties dampen your excitement for your new home!

Jeffrey Simons ~ Broker Associate – Prudential California Realty 714.746.8103 Jeff@Jeffreysimons.com

More good news for consumers… Tax Credit extended!

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Realegal®

More good news for consumers, our members, and the housing market recovery. Following the Senate’s favorable vote yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives just voted 403 to 12 to extend the home buyer tax credit, expanding the parameters to include existing homeowners and not just first-time buyers. As you may know, C.A.R. and our partners at NAR have worked for months urging Congress and the Senate to extend and expand this crucial piece of legislation. We expect President Obama to sign the legislation in short order.

As it now stands, the federal tax credit will be extended through April 30, 2010, with a 60-day extension if a binding contract is in place prior to the deadline. First-time home buyers will continue to be eligible for a tax credit of up to $8,000, while existing homeowners will be eligible for a reduced credit of up to $6,500. To qualify for the $6,500 credit, existing homeowners must have lived in their current residences for at least five years. The bill also increases the qualifying income limits from $75,000 for single tax filers and $150,000 for joint filers to $125,000 and $225,000, respectively. The purchase price of the home is capped at $800,000 in both instances.

Under additional provisions included in the bill, taxpayers can claim the credit on purchases completed in 2010 on their 2009 income tax returns. The legislation maintains the provision that home buyers do not have to repay the credit provided the home remains their primary residence for 36 months after purchase, and waives this requirement for active duty military personnel who move due to a military order.

Nationwide, more than 1.4 million first-time home buyers were given the opportunity to become homeowners as a result of the Federal Tax Credit for First-time Home Buyers. We expect that number to increase dramatically in the months ahead with this new legislation in place. Thank you to our members who called, wrote, and e-mailed their congressional representatives and voiced their support for the home buyer tax credit. Your voices were heard – today’s vote is a direct result of OUR actions and involvement.

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

NO NEW 21-DAY TURNAROUND REQUIREMENT FOR SHORT SALE APPROVALS

Brought to you by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Realegal®

NO NEW 21-DAY TURNAROUND REQUIREMENT FOR SHORT SALE APPROVALS

Recently enacted Senate Bill 306 does not require lenders to review short sale requests from sellers and their agents within 21 days.  The new California law, which addresses certain escrow procedures, has been mischaracterized by some practitioners as landmark legislation calling for a 21-day turnaround for short sale approvals.

The new law inserts a short payoff amount request into the existing payoff demand law which generally requires a lender to respond to a request for a payoff demand statement within 21 days from when it is requested, typically by escrow.  The new law essentially requires, after a short sale has already been approved, for the lender to respond to a request for a short-pay demand statement within 21 days.  The lender’s response to escrow can be a short-pay demand statement or even, depending on the circumstances, a written statement electing not to proceed with the proposed transaction.

Another provision of SB 306 may also cause confusion.  In practice, a lender may approve a short sale subject to its review of a closing statement prepared by escrow, but the lender does not review that closing statement promptly.  Under the new law, if a lender fails to approve the closing statement within four days, the closing statement shall be deemed approved, but only if it is “not clearly contrary to the terms of the short-pay agreement or the short-pay demand statement provided to the escrowholder.”  The new law does not bind a lender to a short payoff amount in an offer that the lender has not approved.

Senate Bill 306 contains other technical changes in real estate related laws, such as, but not limited to, the following:

  • Expanding the existing requirement for a lender to contact certain borrowers to explore options for avoiding foreclosure at least 30 days before filing a notice of default, to include not only owner-occupied residences, but also owner-occupied residential property with two-to-four dwelling units.
  • Extending the existing requirement for a lender to record a notice of sale from 14 to 20 days before a trustee’s sale.  This provision does not change existing law requiring a lender to wait at least 20 days after mailing a notice of sale before conducting a trustee’s sale.

This new law comes into effect on January 1, 2010.  The full text of Senate Bill 306 is available at http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/09-10/bill/sen/sb_0301-0350/sb_306_bill_20090806_chaptered.pdf.


Changes coming… Senate Bill 306.

As you may or may not already know… senate bill 306 was just signed by our govener.  Based on the recent changes this is what you should expect:

Senate Bill 306, signed into law this September, changes some of the rules for California real estate short sales . Much of the excitement around this legislation is a revision to Civil Code section 2943 that provides, when an owner/borrower submits to the lender a “short sale request,” the lender is required to accept or decline it within 21 days.

This excitement overlooks what is required by the statute to trigger the lender’s duty to respond quickly. The statute describes a short sale request as a written request that includes;

A. A copy of an existing contract to purchase the property for an amount certain;

B. A copy of the short-pay agreement in the possession of the entitled person.

C. Information related to the release of any other liens on the property, if
any. Item B, the “short pay agreement,” is further defined as an agreement in writing in which the beneficiary agrees to release its lien on a property in return for payment of an amount less than the secured obligation.

It appears that the procedure is as follows:

1. The prospective seller must first have in hand an agreement with the lender
agreeing, in advance, to a short sale. But there is no deadline for the lender to
provide the agreement, nor discussion of whether the agreement specifies how much the lender will accept. On its face, the statute allows the lender to provide the agreement, but not accept a short sale if it is for less that one dollar below the total owed.

2. The owner/borrower the gets a bona fide purchase offer, and makes a short-pay request.

3. The lender then has 21 days to respond, setting forth whether they accept
the existing offer, or specifying the price and terms they would agree to a short sale.

I’m not sure how this will really benefit the consumer as the only adverse effect to the lender is a minimal fine, and there are challenges as to when the time frames truly begin… If you ever worked with a short sale, they don’t always receive everything you send them, packages get lost or placed in the wrong department, etc… however I’m hopeful that this is a step in the right direction…  your thoughts?

Loan Modification Attorneys Under Investigation!

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Brought to you by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

LOAN MODIFICATION ATTORNEYS UNDER INVESTIGATION The State Bar of California has recently launched numerous investigations against attorneys for misconduct related to loan modifications. In a rare move, the State Bar has released the names of 16 attorneys under investigation, by opting to waive investigation confidentiality in favor of public protection. These attorneys have allegedly taken fees for promised services, but failed to perform those services or even communicate with their clients who face the possible loss of their homes. Their non-attorney staff may also be under investigation for unlawfully practicing law.

Not all attorneys engaged in loan modifications are unscrupulous. However, this announcement from the State Bar serves as a good reminder for REALTORS® and their clients to be careful when dealing with attorneys and others for loan modifications. Scam artists may intentionally associate or affiliate themselves with attorneys in an attempt to lend credence to their fraudulent schemes.

The list of attorneys currently under investigation is available at http://calbar.ca.gov/state/calbar/calbar_generic.jsp?cid=10144&n=96395. C.A.R. provides REALTORS

Short sale challenges….

This market has continued to create challenge after challenge…

I’m not going to tell you that I have all the answers and that I know how to get through every situaltion… What I believe would help, would be for entire industry to CHANGE…

Imagine if we all worked together to reach the same results… how great would that feel? You are not alone and don’t need to do this by yourself. I would like to suggest that any agent working on a short sale that hasn’t already taking an advanced training course through your local board, the short sale specialist (SSS), the short sale matrix (SSM), or the Certified Distressed Property Experts (CDPE) please do so…

At the very least… please consider working together with the community to reach a common goal, whether it be getting through the sale faster, helping your seller through a difficult time, working to get the lender through this sale, minimize their loss, and even for your own selfish benefit to get paid sooner… wouldn’t that be nice?

Are you looking for help? Please visit www.CDPE.com now and make a difference for you, your community and your clients!!!

Orange County Market conditions are creating confusion…

Often times I’m asked “If this is a buyer’s market, why is it so hard to find a home, or why are there so many offers”?

My answer: This market is constantly changing and there is continued change in our economy, the stock market, interest rates, the legislation, the short sale and foreclosure markets and much more.  I personally receive upwards of 3-5 emails a day from different lenders and brokers with conflicting information and misnomers.  There is no doubt that there are changes in every facet of this industry yet there is still a ton of activity in today’s real estate market!

Now… I’m not going to tell you that, I have all the right answers.  I would like to suggest that if you have a question, a problem or an issue that you need help with, let me know.  My diligent team of professionals are here to help me, help you.

My coach “Joe Stumpf” has said that confusion is a convenient place to go when you don’t want to change.  If you don’t want to change… that’s ok!  However, if you are tired of sitting on the fence and you are ready to find out if this market is right for you… give me a call or send me an email right now, and let’s see if we can craft a specific, strategic process to help you get from where you are now, to where you want to be!

Thank you for taking to time to follow this feed, take care and I will look forward to speaking with you soon.

Your Friend In The Real Estate Business…