Shadow inventory threatens housing recovery…

shadow inventory


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — There is a growing glut of foreclosed homes threatening to hit the market over the next couple of years, potentially delaying any recovery.

There were 1.7 million homes either owned by the bank or in some stage of foreclosure at the end of the third quarter of 2010, according to a recent report by Standard & Poor’s. It would take 44 months, at the current rate of sales, to sell them off — a 25% increase from the beginning of 2010. (S&P does not count home loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.)

This so-called “shadow inventory” may depress home values and delay the housing market recovery.

“The problem is you have all these properties coming down the pipeline that are nearly certain to hit the market. That’s going to be a negative for the supply-demand equation,” said Diane Westerback, Managing Director for S&P and an author of the report.

Click here for the full article

CalHFA mortgage aid program for jobless begins

On Monday, more than two months behind schedule, the California Housing Finance Agency will begin taking applications for a federally funded program that will give some unemployed homeowners up to $18,000 each over six months to pay their mortgage.

To qualify, homeowners must meet income and other restrictions and their loan servicer must participate in the program. As of Friday, only three servicers had signed up, but CalHFA expects to have up to 10 by the end of this week.

Read the full article here

A very controversial topic right now… what is the benefit to stay current on your mortgage? What happens if the borrower is unable to get a job thereafter? The challenge that I have is that there are no principle reductions or streamline refinance programs available for those that are in good standing, or those on the edge or becoming late or behind due to job curtailment, loss of income, reduced bonuses, changes in interest rates… etc. Very unique times we are experiencing right now. I’m curious, what are your thoughts?

House Appraisals Under Fire

Gary Cohen's home in Century City, Calif.

Here we go again… we have discussed Automated Appraisals (- Computer Generated Appraisals) in the past and we are still experiencing the same challenges.

Computerized Models Are Assailed as Inaccurate; There Goes the Credit Line – By M.P. MCQUEEN

Home appraisals, which were blamed for being too generous during the housing boom, are now being criticized by some homeowners for being too stingy, preventing them from refinancing or borrowing against their houses.

The criticism is being leveled at computerized real-estate appraisals, which depend on models that use prices from home sales and other data to determine the value of a house. Because of the volatility in the housing market, they are underestimating prices, some homeowners, real-estate agents and fee appraisers say.

Gary Cohen, of West Los Angeles, Calif., says Citibank suspended his $510,000 home-equity line of credit based on a drop in his home's estimated value after performing a computerized appraisal.

Lenders use computerized appraisals primarily for home-equity loans, preapprovals for mortgage refinancing, loan modifications and mortgage originations of less than $250,000. Automated appraisals are cheaper and faster than in-person appraisals. They run as little as $20, whereas appraisals done by people can cost hundreds of dollars.

The computerized models are used as a check on in-person appraisals, which often were too generous during the housing boom, according to federal banking regulators and state attorneys general. The regulators said banks often held sway over appraisers, encouraging them to value homes at certain prices in exchange for future business. In the wake of the housing bust, regulators imposed tough new rules, prohibiting banks from picking individual appraisers for individual properties.

“The selling point was that [computerized appraisals] were faster and not prone to bank pressure,” says Steven Kane, a Colorado commercial and residential appraiser who is the author of two books on how to apply automated valuation models.

Computerized appraisals calculate a home’s value by using an index derived from historical repeat-sales data, or sales records of homes with similar property characteristics, such as square footage and the number of bedrooms and baths. In-person appraisals don’t incorporate as much transactional data as a computer model.

Gary Cohen, an advertising-sales manager in West Los Angeles, Calif., says Citibank suspended his $510,000 home-equity line of credit based on a drop in his home’s estimated value.

A computer model used by the bank showed his home had dropped to just over $1 million in 2009 from the $1.65 million it was appraised at four years earlier.

So, Mr. Cohen, 65 years old, paid $750 for an in-person appraisal from a firm designated by the bank. It estimated his home was valued at $1.3 million, but Citibank still wouldn’t reinstate his credit line.

“The discrepancy is so great that you have to know whatever method they are using is not accurate,” Mr. Cohen says.

Mr. Cohen sued Citibank, a unit of Citigroup Inc., over the appraisal. In court documents, Citibank said that even if his home is worth the higher figure, the bank has a legal right to suspend the credit line.

Gary Cohen's home in Century City, Calif.

“Citibank continues to believe the suit has no merit and intends to defend its position vigorously,” said a spokesman.

Borrowers also have sued J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and other big lenders, claiming that banks are misusing automated valuation models in order to cut home-equity lines of credit. J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo declined to comment.

Automated valuation models were pioneered by Yale economist Robert Shiller, who developed the first systems in the early 1990s. While arguing that these appraisals are more objective than human appraisers, Mr. Shiller and others say that in some situations the models may be providing unrealistically low values, prompting lenders to reject loan applications or lend less money on particular properties.

Some models weigh past sales of a particular property over time against a historical home-price index, and they are running into problems with properties that have been bought only once. That is the situation in places such as Nevada and Southern California, where new subdivisions sprouted during the housing boom but many homes never sold or entered foreclosure before ever being sold in a nondistressed transaction.

“The main difficulty is that I need two or more sales prices for a property, and if I’m not able to find it, it doesn’t fit into the sample used to calculate the index,” says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, one of the largest providers of automated appraisals using this methodology.

Prof. Shiller concedes there can be problems with these appraisals if a too-short period of historical data is programmed into models.

“In a slow market, it might suggest that prices are going to be falling for a while,” he says.

Other computerized models break down the particular characteristics of a property—number of bedrooms and bathrooms—as well as sales of comparable homes, to arrive at a value estimate. They often are hampered by a lack of accurate or comprehensive data in county and municipal records. Improvements, for example, are recorded by building permits, so if homeowners don’t file permits, the records won’t be accurate.

These models can “change a lot, depending on which variables you include or exclude, so there can be a bias,” says Prof. Shiller.

Bottom line… I believe that the lender is really not obligated to lend money on the property regardless of the value, and the fact that the borrower provided a second appraisal… if the borrower desires, they can go to another lender and get a cash out refinance. Your thoughts???

When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

In Mission Crest, 373 homes — nearly 40% of those in the housing development — had been lost at one point to foreclosure, the San Bernardino County assessor's office said. About 100 lots had been left graded and bare. (Katie Falkenberg, For The Times / May 18, 2010)

A Great Article about market recovery as seen in the LA Times. – By Alejandro Lazo

Foreclosures in the state are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. And millions of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. So what’s the outlook for 2011 and beyond?

In Mission Crest, 373 homes — nearly 40% of those in the housing development — had been lost at one point to foreclosure, the San Bernardino County assessor's office said. About 100 lots had been left graded and bare. (Katie Falkenberg, For The Times / May 18, 2010)

As housing recoveries go, this one is in need of a cure.

Homeownership — and the buying and selling of residences — is an economic keystone that carries overwhelming weight in Californians’ personal sense of financial well-being.

But the momentum of the state’s housing rebound has faltered, with sales falling and prices softening despite bargain-basement interest rates. Foreclosures in California are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. The construction sector is in the doldrums. And millions of the state’s homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.

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Real estate historically has helped give a boost to economies exiting a recession, but the severity of this bust is nearly unprecedented: Californians have lost $1.73 trillion worth of equity in their homes since prices peaked in 2007, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

Although California’s housing market free-fall ended in spring 2009, the weakness after the expiration of federal tax credits for buyers last year has called into question the sustainability of the recovery.

The Times asked five California experts for their take on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again. They range from the pessimism of a foreclosure specialist to the decidedly more upbeat view of a Realtor association economist.

• Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011.

California’s recovery will hinge on location, said Green, who held professorships at several universities and worked as a principal economist at Freddie Mac before becoming director of the Lusk center.

“Draw a line from El Centro up to Sacramento and think of all the towns up and down that line. Unless we have hyperinflation in general in the economy — prices going up a lot — I would guess that in my lifetime we will not see a return to the prices that we had at the peak,” Green said.

“Now, places like La Jolla, Malibu, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, Marin County, those are places where within the next five years I could easily imagine prices returning to their peak.”

“The markets in the Central Valley were much more bubbly than the markets on the coast,” he said. “You have very few people who make a lot of money in these places.”

“Whereas a place like Silicon Valley, or a place like West Los Angeles, there is a critical mass of very high-income people.… That means you have a large number of people who can afford to spend in the neighborhood of $1 million on a house, and these are desirable places.”

“The more a property is a commodity that you can easily substitute for something else, the less the chance it will ever come back to its peak. The rarer a property is, the more likely it’s going to come back quickly.”

• Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors, predicts home prices will rise 2% in 2011.

There are few professionals who would like more to see the housing market bounce back to the heady days of old than Realtors. Real estate agents made a killing when the housing market soared and then took a pounding when it tanked.

During the boom years, Appleton-Young said, she espoused the theory that rising prices mattered more than making solid loans. That theory appeared correct as long as values kept rising.

“What happened this time was prices plummeted and everyone was in trouble,” she said.

These days, the economist sees little chance of the market returning to its previous heights anytime soon.

“We are in a very slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end,” Appleton-Young said. “We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market.”

2011 will be lackluster, she said, but that does not mean California is not improving.

“We are almost two years into a price recovery. The problem is not to look at 2007 as the normal market that you are moving back up to, because it wasn’t a normal market. We are back in an underwriting environment that actually makes sense.”

“You are seeing prices recovering throughout the state,” she added. “It is just going to take time.”

• Bruce Norris, president of Norris Group in Riverside, expects home prices to fall 5% in 2011.

The real estate slump has been good to Norris, an investor in foreclosed homes. But he believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year.

“We are in an artificial recovery,” Norris said. “It’s government controlled and manipulated. We have extremely favorable interest rates that we really should not have, based on our debt. We have supported real estate with tax rebates, and we have prevented inventory from showing up by allowing people to be two and three years behind on their mortgages.”

Foreclosed homes, in particular, are being kept off the market through loan modification attempts and other policies.

“You’ve had a slew of programs trying to prevent inventory from showing up, and that prevents reality from happening,” Norris said. “It’s definitely standing in the way of the natural process.”

What does the housing market need most?

“Demand for houses,” Norris said. “Somebody able to qualify for a loan and actually being able to get it. And that’s why it is not going to happen.”

• Emile Haddad, chief executive of FivePoint Communities Inc., expects home prices to “stabilize” in 2011 but declined to make a specific price prediction.

Determining whether the housing market is on steady footing is essential to developers such as Haddad, the former chief investment officer for Lennar Corp. Haddad, along with Lennar, is now part owner of FivePoint, which is managing the development of the Valencia community in Los Angeles County and other high-profile projects. He believes a recovery has yet to take hold in California.

“We are bumping along the bottom,” Haddad said. “And that is a good thing, because that is the first thing that you need in order to start seeing a housing recovery. You need to have a period where values are not going down and the trend is moving in a different direction.”

California’s coastal markets will come back once the job market returns, he said, lifting consumer confidence. But California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in such places.

“In the Central Valley, values have changed a lot,” Haddad said. “You are not going to be able to really have enough depth in the market to sell large, expensive homes, because the ceiling of value is way down.”

“If you pick on a market like Orange County,” he said, “it is still a place that once people feel confident…. I believe people will be out buying homes.”

Affordability is working in the market’s favor.

“We have a mortgage environment that is more favorable — the rates are down — but people are not able to get mortgages, and that is not helping. The most important thing we need is jobs and job creation.”

“Affordability is something I look at, and obviously that is a very attractive metric right now…. There is a value proposition out there right now that is very attractive, that we haven’t seen in four decades.”

• Christopher Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011.

Once a senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Thornberg was one of the first to predict the housing crash, pointing to prices that were way out of line with what people earned.

In that vein, he views the plunge in home values as its own recovery of sorts “because that is when prices went from stupid-high levels to levels that made sense again,” Thornberg said. “Now we are in a post-recovery recovery, if you will.”

“This is not the bust. A bust implies that prices have fallen to levels that are too low. And I would argue that prices today are relatively high. It’s interest rates that have given us this degree of affordability, and from that perspective that is why I don’t expect prices to come down.”

Since helping found Beacon in 2006, Thornberg has become chief economist for state Controller John Chiang and chair of the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisory board of New York hedge fund Paulson & Co. He has been a forceful critic of the Obama administration’s policy attempts to right the market.

“The administration has tried, through a variety of policy methods, to try and spike the market,” he said.

alejandro.lazo@latimes.com
Copyright © 2011, Los Angeles Times

Bull vs. Bear: Will housing rebound?

bull vs bear

An interesting read to say the least… let me know your thoughts!
As seen in CNN Money – Posted by Nin-Hai Tseng, writer-reporter- December 27, 2010

It’s a question many Americans want answered: Will the value of my home rise or fall next year? Smart minds fall in both camps — here are both sides of the coin on real estate.

One of the most closely watched sectors in 2011 will continue to be real estate – a wildly emotional and divisive topic that’s puzzled investors and economists since the housing bubble burst around 2007. Earlier this year, many observers thought the market would turn around in a big way as federal tax credits spurred home purchases and the economy added jobs following hundreds of billions of dollars of government stimulus spending.

As the end of the year approaches, the prospects of a real recovery look much dimmer. For one, it’s become clear that we won’t see a true rebound until we have job growth. With unemployment showing few signs of improvement so far, the bullish take on housing seems hard to swallow, especially when many experts say home prices still have room to fall before hitting bottom.

But a bullish take doesn’t necessarily mean that prices would significantly rise. These are unprecedented times, and even the more cheery views fall short of predicting a steady surge in home values.

Here’s a bullish and bearish look at real estate for 2011.

Bull: Buy real estate!

One of the most vocal bulls on housing for 2011 has been Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. At the Value Investing Congress in November, Ackman made a bold presentation called “How To Make A Fortune,” highlighting why it’s the right time to invest in real estate.

Ackman laid out several reasons but some key points include: With the fall in home prices and mortgage rates still relatively low, affordability is at its highest level in decades. What’s more, while there’s clearly still a glut in the supply of unoccupied homes, it will start to decline given that the rate of home construction is at historic lows.

Some of Ackman’s points sound similar to the reasons billionaire investor Warren Buffett gave earlier this year for his prediction that the real estate slump would end by about 2011.

Of course, this doesn’t mean he thinks home prices will return to their 2007 peak. In Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), which owns real-estate brokerage and manufacturer Clayton Homes, he predicted that demand for homes would catch up with supply following a period where the glut of unsold property caused home construction to dramatically fall.

In 2009, housing starts (the supply side) were 554,000 – by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which Berkshire could date. “Paradoxically, this is good news,” Buffett wrote.

And with home prices falling, he said families who couldn’t afford to buy a few years ago would finally be able to afford to do so. Buffett put it this way: “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits.”

It’s anyone’s guess if Buffett’s position on housing will change much in his letter to shareholders next year. It also remains to be seen if Ackman will continue to trump his “How to Make a Fortune” pitch with the recent rise in mortgage rates. For now, at least, both investors see promise in housing.

Bear: What bottom?

While home prices have for the most part stopped their freefall, some economists believe they haven’t hit bottom yet.

Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, recently told The Wall Street Journal that foreclosures for 2011 could top the estimated 1.2 million bank repossessions this year, which reflected an increase of 900,000 from 2009. This is partly due to the so-called “robosigning” mess that forced some lenders to stall a flurry of foreclosures.

While Sharga predicts that home prices nationally could still fall by about 5%, others say they could drop much more at about 10%.

Some might argue that further declines coupled with relatively low mortgage rates might just spur a flurry of home purchases, but Daryl Jones, an analysts at investment research firm Hedgeye says that’s unlikely given that credit standards at virtually all major lenders are much higher and typically require larger down payments that would actually add to costs. Jones also thinks that home prices could fall another 15% to 30%, which means homes are actually still overpriced and might not attract more buyers as Ackman argues.

And while home construction is at all-time lows, Hedgeye says the trend is probably not as promising as Buffett and Ackman might think. The supply of housing is still very high – the firm estimated in November that there’s still 11 months of supply on the market to absorb, which is close to levels seen in 2009.

With so many variables working against the housing market, the bearish takes becomes all the more convincing. But one can always hope they’re wrong.

Homeowners use ‘show me the note’ to fight foreclosure

Steve and Tamara Gewecke are fighting to keep their home from foreclosure by challenging the bank to prove it has standing to foreclose.

While I can empethize with the homeowners and understand their challenges, I think that this is all wrong… What are your thoughts?

By Julie Schmit, USA TODAY

Steve and Tamara Gewecke are fighting to keep their home from foreclosure by challenging the bank to prove it has standing to foreclose.

Steven and Tamara Gewecke are three years behind on their mortgage payments, but they’ve fought off foreclosure.
The Minnesota couple refinanced in 2006 to start a business. It failed. Debts mounted. The Geweckes went bankrupt and failed to win a loan modification. But they bought time.

In 2009, the Geweckes filed a lawsuit to block their foreclosure. At the heart of their case is this question: Who owns their mortgage?

They allege the investor trust that claims to doesn’t because there’s no proper record of the mortgage’s transfer to the trust.
Their complaint also alleges that the mortgage didn’t get to the trust until 18 months after the trust closed to new loans.

Their argument is one that more borrowers are making as they fight foreclosures in courts nationwide. Their attorneys allege that companies used shoddy practices at the height of the subprime lending boom when reselling mortgage loans in rapid-fire fashion, leaving questions now about mortgage ownership as foreclosures mount.

While homeowners are unlikely to keep homes if they haven't paid their debts, their challenges are delaying foreclosures and giving them more leverage to win loan modifications, legal experts say. Their arguments are also getting more attention after revelations this fall that companies produced thousands of potentially fraudulent foreclosure documents. The Department of Justice and others are investigating.



“There has been a sea change,” says Katherine Porter, a bankruptcy expert at the University of Iowa. “Judges are more willing to listen to homeowners … to establish if the bank has done something wrong. In the past, it was always, ‘The bank is right.’ ”

New York State Supreme Court Justice F. Dana Winslow testified at a congressional hearing this month that he’s seen so many problems with foreclosure cases that he no longer assumes the company attempting to foreclose is the right one. Instead, he calls them the “presumptive mortgagee in foreclosure.”

Winslow said he’s often seen cases in which lawyers pushing for foreclosure failed to produce the mortgage note — which proves ownership of the debt — or produced the wrong note. Companies failed to establish the legal chain of title proving their right to foreclose and submitted “questionable” affidavits attesting to ownership of notes and mortgages, the lien on the property, he said.

Homeowners’ attorneys also allege that companies created documents if they didn’t have the ones they needed, including lost-note affidavits signed by low-level employees who never read the affidavits yet attested to their accuracy. It was “cheaper to make the documents up than … to dig them up,” says Linda Tirelli, New York consumer bankruptcy attorney.

Florida attorney James Kowalski, in recent written testimony to congressional lawmakers, cited a case in which two companies are trying to foreclose on the same house. Both claim to own the note.

Financial firms have said that any mistakes were minimal and can be remedied. In October, several firms, including Bank of America and GMAC Mortgage, temporarily halted some foreclosure sales to check procedures.

The industry also has defended the practice of bundling mortgages into securities for sale to investors. “There will be instances where mistakes were made … but the broad process is sound,” says Tom Deutsch, executive director of the industry’s American Securitization Forum.

If companies can produce documents to prove standing to foreclose, some foreclosures may simply be delayed, legal experts say. But it’s not clear that the issues are minor, said the Congressional Oversight Panel in a report last month. In a worst-case scenario, the report said that banks “may be unable to prove that they own” mortgages, clouding property titles for millions of homes and causing substantial financial harm to banks.

The issues are technical but “pose a potential systemic risk to the U.S. economy,” Georgetown University law professor Adam Levitin said at a recent congressional hearing. If mortgages were not properly transferred, “Then mortgage-backed securities would in fact not be backed by any mortgages whatsoever,” Levitin said.

A tangled paperwork trail

In the past, lenders rarely struggled to prove they had standing to foreclose. Local banks made mortgage loans, kept the documents and took payments.

But in the past decade, trillions of dollars of mortgage loans were packaged and sold to investors. Starting a day or two after homeowners signed closing papers, loans were sold and re-sold en route to investor trusts. To speed and reduce the cost of the process, lenders created Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, or MERS, to track mortgage ownership and sometimes serve as mortgagee of record for the actual note owner. Some homeowners have challenged MERS’ authority to foreclose on the note owner’s behalf.

At issue now is whether mortgage loans were properly transferred and whether those transfers were properly documented.

Homeowner attorneys, such as the non-profit law firm representing the Geweckes, say that didn’t always occur. Financial firms say it did. The trustee in the Gewecke case, US Bank, argues that Minnesota law does not require an assignment — a public record showing a transfer — of the mortgage at every step of its path into a trust. It also says that the note was put into the trust on time and so the mortgage was too. US Bank says it can prove that it owns the Geweckes’ mortgage because it has the original note, the trust mentions the Gewecke loan and US Bank has an assignment that shows the mortgage was transferred from the Geweckes’ original lender to US Bank. A hearing in Minnesota U.S. District Court is set for Jan. 10.

Deutsch also says that the typical contract governing trusts doesn’t require that all prior owners or holders of mortgage notes appear on documents to show chain of ownership as notes pass from lenders or others to trusts. Levitin says they typically do. The law on such matters is “uncertain,” says Christopher Peterson, law professor at the University of Utah. He predicts years of litigation.

Judge rules against BofA

The homeowners’ cause scored a win last month when U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Judith Wizmur dismissed Bank of America’s claim to enforce a New Jersey mortgage originated by Countrywide Home Loans in 2006.

Wizmur said that Countrywide, which Bank of America bought in 2008, never properly endorsed and transferred the mortgage note to the Bank of New York, the trustee of an investor trust. As such, there was no evidence that Bank of New York owned the note, leaving it unenforceable. A Bank of America employee also testified that Countrywide routinely failed to transfer original notes.

In her order, Judge Wizmur noted a “bizarre twist” in which Countrywide said the note had been “misplaced, lost or destroyed” but then said it had been found. Attorneys couldn’t “explain the inconsistencies,” Wizmur wrote.

Bank of America counters that it was Countrywide’s policy to deliver notes as trust rules require and that the employee who testified “was mistaken,” says spokesman Jerry Dubrowski. Bank of America will not appeal because it doesn’t think the ruling will have broad implications, he adds.

The homeowner’s attorney, Bruce Levitt, says the ruling means that his client no longer owes the $211,000 that Bank of America said was owed.

Moody’s Investors Service, in a Dec. 6 report, said Countrywide probably did deliver mortgage notes. But it also said that when companies failed to do that, they “may not be able to foreclose” and that, given the New Jersey case, Bank of America may face more such challenges.

Other judges have also required more proof of right to foreclose. This month, a Florida judge dismissed a foreclosure case and said it could be refiled but needed to lay out the chain of who owned and held the mortgage loan from the start. In Ohio, a judge this month also ruled in a homeowner’s favor in a foreclosure when he said, among other things, that there was no evidence that an allonge — a paper signed by the mortgage note’s previous owner transferring ownership — was affixed to the note as it should have been. That left the note’s ownership unclear.

The United States Trustee Program, which guards against bankruptcy court fraud for the Department of Justice, has also launched an “enhanced review of documents” in cases where banks seek to foreclose or collect payments, says U.S. Trustee spokeswoman Jane Limprecht.

The impact is being felt. Last month, the Justice Department’s trustee for bankruptcy cases in northern Georgia filed papers in at least two cases saying that banks hadn’t proved that they could enforce notes or deeds for the debtors’ homes. The increased oversight by the trustees is meaningful, says bankruptcy attorney Howard Rothbloom. “The federal government has come in and said that lenders have to have their paperwork in order,” he says.

Few foreclosures challenged

More than 90% of homeowners don’t fight their foreclosures, lawyers say. Even if they do, the vast majority are unlikely to keep homes, because they haven’t paid their debts, attorneys say. “The only way to avoid foreclosure … is to pay off the loan,” says Shari Olefson, a real estate attorney who often represents banks. If needed, companies will find notes, re-do sloppy paperwork and prove standing, she says. Bank of America and Wells Fargo say they can retrieve notes, when needed, and have good processes.

While banks made mistakes, the “probability is high that we’ll figure out who owns the mortgage,” says Richard Bove, banking analyst for Rochdale Securities.

Still, attorneys say companies may be more apt to modify loans if foreclosure records aren’t in tip-top shape. Modifications “become more available when there is greater risk to the lender,” says Judge Winslow in an interview. Rarely, if ever, will homeowners walk away with free homes even if there are title issues that take time to resolve, Winslow adds. Homeowners “owe someone.”

The Geweckes want a loan modification so they can stay in their home of 16 years. Their current loan has an adjustable 9.25% interest rate. They owe more on the house than it’s worth.

They’re not looking for a “free ride,” says Steven, 40, who works in marketing. Neither do they want to pay off one firm and then face a future claim by another.

They also hope their case will send a message to mortgage companies that they must obey rules, too.

“I understand that if you don’t make your payments, you’ll lose your home,” says Tamara Gewecke, 41. “But make sure you do it right. Make sure you’ve got your paperwork done.”

Banks are in a difficult situation…

Dangerous Waters sign at Dam


Banks and the government have struggled to get the current foreclosure situation under control. The modification programs have helped many families avoid foreclosure. However, the number is but a small percentage of those incapable or unwilling to pay their mortgage. This has resulted in an ever increasing number of bank owned foreclosures (REOs).

The banks are in a difficult situation. If they release this inventory of discounted properties to the market too quickly, it could crush prices causing even more foreclosures. If they release it too slowly, any housing recovery would be further delayed. Imagine a dam, and look at the foreclosures as water behind the dam. The banks needed to find the perfect amount of water they could release to feed the river below but not flood the valley.

This past summer banks finally found that perfect number – not too many, not too few – that the market could handle. Being confident that they had a handle on the challenge, banks increased their repossessions of delinquent properties. Repossessions were up 49 % in August. September set an all-time record for reposed homes. However, in their haste to build that inventory, they got sloppy with their procedures.

When this was revealed, both private and government institutions mandated that the banks declare a moratorium on foreclosures until the irregularities were corrected.

In essence, they put a cork in the dam.

The banks have now revised their procedures and feel comfortable with the accuracy of their paperwork. They will begin to release foreclosures after the first of the year.

The cork is about to be removed.

What will this do to prices?

Both the Bank of America and Fannie Mae have projected that house prices will fall dramatically at the end of the first quarter of 2011 and then slowly move upward through the rest of the year. Why the dramatic drop in values after the start of the year? Perhaps the people in control of the cork know exactly when it will be removed and realize the short term implications.

Bottom Line

There is currently a window of opportunity to sell your home before the discounted properties again re-enter the market and put downward pressure on prices. If you plan to sell within the next year, now might be the time.

More Foreclosures Expected in 2011

more foreclosures

What does that mean to you if you are buying? Selling?
By AMY HOAK @ the WSJ

Brace yourself for another rough year in housing: The number of foreclosures is expected by many to increase in 2011 as more troubled mortgages work their way through the pipeline.

Next year could very well be a peak year for foreclosures, says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties. The market is expected to tally about 1.2 million bank repossessions in 2010, up from 900,000 in 2009, he says. “We expect we will top both of those numbers in 2011.”

That’s partially due to issues the industry has faced with foreclosure processing that began in the fall and delayed a portion of foreclosures from being completed this year, he says. In the so-called robosigning controversy, some lenders halted foreclosures after learning procedures for signing off on foreclosure documents might not be in accordance with the law.

Continued high unemployment also is expected to exacerbate the foreclosure problem in the year ahead, as will upcoming interest-rate resets on adjustable-rate mortgages that will increase monthly payments for some homeowners, Mr. Sharga says.

In the meantime, data on the volume of loan modifications from the Treasury Department indicate that fewer borrowers were being approved for permanent modifications in recent months, says Greg Hebner, chief executive of MOS Group, a loss-mitigation service provider to mortgage lenders and servicers.

What’s more, there’s a growing feeling that modifying mortgages doesn’t get to the heart of the housing crisis: “There is the perception that the answer to this involves trying to get job growth,” which will help homeowners pay their loans and enable others to buy homes, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, during a recent conference call with reporters.

For the longer term, however, the outlook for the foreclosure market is better since fewer homeowners are becoming delinquent on their mortgage payments. Thirty-day delinquencies are down 11% since the height of the recession in the first part of 2009, according to Mr. Brinkmann.

And loans 60 or more days past due are expected to fall nearly 20% by the end of 2011, to about 5% of all mortgages from an expected 6.2% at the end of 2010, according to a forecast released Tuesday from credit-reporting company TransUnion. Delinquency numbers are expected to continue to improve as unemployment slowly declines. (For its numbers, TransUnion uses a random sample of 27 million records from its database.)

“It’s good progress, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” says Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial-services business unit. In a more normal market, 60-day delinquencies would be in the 1.5% to 2% range, he says.

So how does all this bode for housing prices?

High housing inventory, along with high unemployment, will likely add up to continued depressed home prices in the year ahead in many markets, says Nichole Jordan, banking and securities industry practice leader for Grant Thornton, an accounting and business advisory firm.

“It’s going to take several years to work through the excess inventory,” she says.

Ms. Jordan and others are looking to 2012 for anything resembling a recovery in housing. Even then, it’s going to be a long journey to stabilization; it historically takes five to seven years for prices to stabilize after a deep correction, Ms. Jordan says.

“Realistically, you’re not going to see home prices appreciate next year,” says Jason Kopcak, head of whole loans at financial-services firm Cantor Fitzgerald. In fact, many in the industry are expecting prices to fall another 10% next year on a national basis, he says. RealtyTrac’s Mr. Sharga says the national decline could be around 5%. Other economists are expecting prices to remain flat.

Next year “is going to be a wash, in terms of any meaningful recovery, and we’re looking toward 2012,” said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, during a conference call with reporters. And that’s assuming there are no other major problems or delays to contend with, he says.

Write to Amy Hoak at amy.hoak@dowjones.com
—Read more at marketwatch.com.

Good article Lew. Shouldn’t they do this? I would think that it should be common practice, however what happens if the clients credit becomes compromised? There is nothing in the note that makes it due and payable!

In a kind of crisis intervention, IndiSoft is working on computer programs that track borrower behavior so that if a life-changing event occurs, steps can be taken to ensure timely payments are made.

By Lew Sichelman-December 12, 2010
Reporting from Washington —

The day is coming when lenders will no longer turn their clients loose after they leave the closing table, never to be heard from again unless someone misses a payment or two.

Think of it as crisis intervention. Rather than waiting for previously solid borrowers to ask for help, lenders will monitor their borrowers over the life of their loans, looking for signs of trouble before borrowers even realize a problem is at hand.

It won’t happen this year, or even next. Lenders are too busy right now cleaning up the current mess of bad loans. But Sanjeev Dahiwadkar, president and chief executive of IndiSoft, a Columbia, Md., mortgage-technology company, believes it won’t be too long before lenders begin keeping tabs on their customers for as long as their loans are on the books.
“That ship has already started sailing,” Dahiwadkar says. “Historically, servicers have always waited for problems to materialize before trying to do something about them. But they are going to be watching their portfolios much more closely in the future.”

IndiSoft writes computer programs for the default-management business, the underbelly of the lending community that works to turn nonperforming loans into performing assets. The company’s clients include everyone who has a stake in saving problem loans: the investor that purchases the loan from the funding lender, the servicer that collects the payments on behalf of the investor and the insurance company that promises to cover part of the investor’s losses should the borrower stop paying.

Currently, IndiSoft’s technology comes into play the day a borrower stops paying. But Dahiwadkarsays the company is working on programs that monitor borrower behavior so that if a life-changing event such as a divorce or layoff occurs, an IndiSoft client can take whatever steps are necessary to make sure the borrower continues to make timely payments as promised.

The client might choose to simply monitor a particular loan more closely than it would otherwise, perhaps sending a friendly reminder a few days after a payment is due rather than waiting until it is 30 or 60 days late. Or it could take bolder steps such as calling the borrower to make sure that all is well and offering help right away instead of when the borrower is 90 days behind.

Right now servicers are so overwhelmed trying to work through the millions of mortgages that are in some stage of the foreclosure process that slow-paying or minimally late-paying loans are getting little or no attention.

Worse, most borrowers tend to stick their heads in the sand when they get behind, figuring that they’ll solve their problems on their own. But even when borrowers call in an attempt to avert a potential crisis, short-handed servicers typically relegate them to the end of the line because they have their hands full with more extreme situations.

Eventually, though, the foreclosure mess will clear. And when that happens, Dahiwadkar believes that stakeholders will become far more proactive in managing risk than they are now. Instead of reacting to problems as they occur, he says, they will look for a pattern of behavior — clues, if you will — that indicate a problem is on the horizon.

This goes far beyond the latest underwriting wrinkle of reevaluating a would-be borrower’s credit just before the mortgage closes to make sure that the person hasn’t taken out any other loans or run up other bills that would impinge on the ability to make house payments. And it could go way beyond monitoring for life events such as a major medical issue.

For example, the lender might ask you to sign a document at settlement that gives the servicer the right to run periodic credit reports to see whether you are having any difficulty paying your bills. If the servicer knows you’ve missed a couple of credit card payments or you are late on your auto loan, it might call to find out what’s up.

But permission to monitor your credit goes even deeper than that. If all of a sudden you start paying your bills on the 15th of the month instead of the first, for example, programs developed by IndiSoft or other technology companies will alert the servicer, which can then step up its surveillance.

“There are different ways to analyze risk,” Dahiwadkar says. “A change in behavior is something to be cautious about. So if a payment pattern changes, it could be a trigger for putting a loan on a ‘watch’ list.”

Then, if you don’t seem to be handling your finances well, the company might offer credit counseling so you don’t also fall behind on your mortgage. Or if you’ve been laid off, the servicer could offer to rework your loan or allow you to miss a few payments until you get back on your feet.

But Dahiwadkar says servicers and other stakeholders will be watching their borrowers’ behavior much more closely so they also can separate those who are truly experiencing financial difficulties from deadbeats simply refusing to pay.

If someone stops paying the mortgage but continues to make credit card payments on time or takes on new debt — a second mortgage, for example, a car loan or a loan from a finance company — the IndiSoft executive says, “It’s pretty certain you are dealing with a borrower who is not paying because he doesn’t want to, not because he can’t.”

lsichelman@aol.com
Distributed by United Feature Syndicate.- Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times

Luxury home prices are still heading down…

Author Anne Rice has reduced the asking price on her Rancho Mirage home by $350,000, to $2.95 million, because she wants a smaller residence. (Mariah Tauger, Los Angeles Times / November 19, 2010)

Very good and well written article with keen insight from some of Orange Counties well known agents. What are your thoughts?

While Southland housing values overall have rebounded from recent lows, those in the upper end of the market may not yet have hit bottom. Some experts don’t see a turnaround for at least another year.

Author Anne Rice has reduced the asking price on her Rancho Mirage home by $350,000, to $2.95 million, because she wants a smaller residence. (Mariah Tauger, Los Angeles Times / November 19, 2010)

Photos: Author Anne Rice downsizing from luxury home
By Lauren Beale, Los Angeles Times

On its glittering surface, the Southern California luxury housing market still has plenty of pizzazz.

A 48,000-square-foot Versailles-style estate in Bel-Air that sold for $50 million is believed to be the highest-priced sale in the nation this year. Actor Sacha Baron Cohen spent $18.9 million on a Mediterranean villa in the Hollywood Hills, a record for that area.

Luxury housing: In the Dec. 13 Section A, a graphic with an article about problems in the luxury housing market listed ZIP Codes for the highest-priced homes in Southern California. It showed two locations for Rancho Santa Fe on a map: the correct one in San Diego County and an incorrect one in Los Angeles County. —

These trophy deals, however, are masking a larger malaise in the luxury market. Most mansions put up for sale are lingering for months without nibbles from buyers, real estate agents say. And although Southland home prices overall have rebounded from lows hit last year, the luxury market is still trending downward.

The troubles at the top may seem small compared with the huge housing declines seen in areas such as the Inland Empire. But a turnaround in the luxury market was the first indicator of recovery in the 1990s down cycle. And many experts say the housing market won’t be healthy again as long as mansion prices are falling — which could be the case for at least another year.

“Good locations will be the first out, and luxury is generally in good locations,” said economist John Burns, who heads a real estate consulting firm in Irvine.

Why the continuing funk? Analysts say the foreclosures and short sales that depressed home prices in general are finally catching up with the high-end market. The day of reckoning just took more time.

“Formerly affluent people who borrowed far too much money” are running out of staying power, Burns said.

The Times examined monthly sales data in 20 Southland ZIP Codes with the highest home prices, from Beverly Hills to Solana Beach, using information provided by research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

In 10 of those areas, home values are still lower than they were a year ago, suggesting that they have yet to hit bottom. Median prices were basically unchanged in five areas and showed modest gains in five. Overall, 19 of the 20 communities are still below their high points.

Anne Rice said she feels a little awkward complaining about the real estate market. As a bestselling novelist, she realizes she is far more fortunate than most.

Even so, Rice isn’t thrilled that she has had to reduce the asking price on her primary home in Rancho Mirage, near Palm Springs, by $350,000.

She hopes the new price of $2.95 million will attract a buyer, but it means taking a greater loss. Rice bought the six-bedroom, seven-bath home in gated Thunderbird Heights for $3.6 million in 2005.

“The market has been hard on us,” said Rice, who wants to downsize. “All my high-earning years, I invested in real estate…. I have lost money now on two — quite dramatically — selling an $8-million property in La Jolla for $6.5 million and a property in New Orleans for less than cost and improvements.”

Southland home values plunged 51% from 2007 to 2009. But they’ve shown steady improvement over the last 18 months, gaining back about 15%.

In contrast, home values at the upper end have not fallen as far but have shown few signs of recovery, according to MDA DataQuick figures.

There are 44 ZIP Codes in Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Barbara and San Diego counties where median prices exceed $1 million. Prices in these high-end communities dropped nearly 26% from their January 2008 peak to April 2010. They have gained back 5% since then.

Prices in Rancho Santa Fe, ranked by Forbes as the third most expensive community in the nation, have fallen nearly 31% since their 2005 peak, and they have yet to turn the corner.

Through October, Beverly Hills 90210 had the highest median of these top-priced neighborhoods at $2.7 million. That’s down a mere 18.7% from the 2008 crest, but it too has not shown any rebound.

While the overall drop in value has not been as severe as that at the lower end of the market, the fact that prices in many areas continue to fall acts as a brake on sales — as buyers hold off making purchases out of fear their investment will immediately decline in value.

Luxury real estate brokers are feeling the pinch, as fat commissions are fewer and further between.

“We’re seeing a lot more sales in the $1 million and below range,” said John McMonigle, president of McMonigle Group, an Orange County firm that specializes in selling luxury properties. “We had 121 homes close escrow in Newport Beach in September at an average of $1.15 million, but when you drill down, one thing is concerning: There was only one house over $5 million.”

Malibu’s Billionaires’ Beach enclave can boast of a $37-million closing in October, one of the highest prices there ever. But that and other marquee sales can’t make up for weakness elsewhere in the market.

“Malibu has taken the worst hit,” said Sandra Miller, an agent who tracks $1-million-plus sales on the Westside. Less than a third of listed properties are selling, she said, and median prices are down about 25%.

When will the market turn around, and what will it take?

Burns, the economist, believes that the housing market overall is headed back toward 2002 price levels, on grounds that the gains seen over the last year or so will be reversed as a new flood of foreclosures and short sales hit the market.

That would mean a small retreat for the general market, in which prices are now at 2003 levels. It would be a more dramatic downturn at the high end, where prices are about where they were in 2005. He predicted they won’t hit bottom till 2012.

Real estate agents say one reason the high-end market has taken longer to reach bottom can be summed up in one three-letter word: ego. Wealthy sellers may not need the money and refuse to reduce their price for fear they’ll look like they are in financial trouble, said Bob Hurwitz of Hurwitz James Co. in Beverly Hills.

The message he tries to hammer into unrealistic sellers these days: “You wouldn’t buy this house for this price yourself.”

Holding firm on an asking price keeps up the illusion that the house is worth more, Hurwitz said. “Some sellers are dreaming.”

Southern California’s posh neighborhoods are littered with examples of properties stuck at outdated prices. The most noticeable on the landscape is Fleur de Lys, a 12-bedroom estate in Holmby Hills that was listed at $125 million for 940 days before being pulled off the Multiple Listing Service late last year. The French Beaux Arts mansion on 5 acres is still being marketed on agents’ websites.

By comparison, its competition — the nearby $150-million Spelling estate — has been on the market only since March 2009. There has been no price drop on this 56,500-square-foot manse either, however.

The moneyed market of the Palos Verdes Peninsula is no different. Linda D’Ambrosi of Keller Williams had the listing on a turn-key ocean-view house that lingered on the market for more than a year with nary a price cut. Home prices on the peninsula are down 12.9% from their 2008 peak.

“The seller,” she said, “just couldn’t come to terms with today’s value.”

lauren.beale@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times